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Some people, including the authors of the AI 2027 website, have a powerful intuition that intelligence is a scalar quantity that can go much higher than human level, and that an entity with a much higher level of intelligence will almost automatically be more powerful.
They also believe that it's very difficult for someone (or something) with a lower level of intelligence to supervise someone (or something) at a much higher level of intelligence.
If you buy these premises, you're going to find the scenario sketched out in AI 2027 plausible. I don't, so I didn't. But it's a fun read.
To give one concrete example: there seems to be a strong assumption that there are a set of major military breakthroughs that can be achieved through sheer intelligence.
I obviously can't rule this out but it's hard to imagine what kind of breakthroughs this could be. If you had an idea for a new bomb or missile or drone or whatever, you'd need to build prototypes, test them, set up factories, etc. An AI in a datacenter can't do that stuff.
they explicitly mention that the skill profile will be uneven, so they are not assuming it's scalar
Coral AI is the most powerful AI for documents.
See the difference yourself:
I agree that it isn’t a scalar, and that “superintelligence” isn’t meaningful. But one can get to the level of the smartest humans; and clearly we can have that combined with ~perfect memory and very fast thinking speed relative to humans. Isn’t that all you functionally need?
Agreed, there’s an excessive amount of anthropomorphizing and conflating of intelligence with consciousness from the AI safety / doomer crew :/
They need to lay off the incessant dystopian sci-fi drip.
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Josh You
@justjoshinyou13
Babe wake up, another long-form essay on the future of AI published on a minimalistic but tastefully-styled website with a beige background just dropped. x.com/justjoshinyou1…
What were your predictions in 2021 about how the last 4y would play out? Because Daniel K got them shockingly right. The approach has a strong track record by now.