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Lab4crypto
@Lab4crypto_
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@BayesianNuance
The tricky thing about some of these is how much variation can go into the same outcome. A Dem trifecta in 2028 could entail a Republican collapse...or it could entail compelling Dem messaging moderation. 40% seems a bit high to me, but maybe not THAT high.
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Mannnnaayyyy
@whereismanny
But are you willing to put money on them?
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
Replying to @rabois
Have your lawyer draw up a quick contract and it's a deal. NATE DOT SILVER DOT MEDIA AT GMAIL DOT COM. No contract, no bet, because you've been nutty lately and are a payment risk.
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BocaDuke
@BocaDuk3
Same guy who predicted a Kamala win.. you’re underestimating Trumps will to carry out his campaign promises and deliver for the whole of the American people, not just pandering to a minuscule special interest group like Democrats.
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MichoelR
@MichoelR613
I'm a little surprised by the claim that Democrats will probably take the House. The variance seems so huge to me - there is just so much happening so fast that I've never seen before. I have _no idea_ how this is going to play out and I don't believe anyone else does either.
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kaponofor3
@kaponofor3
its cute you think there will be a fair election in 2028 with Trump's lackeys in charge. They've totally shown a willingness to call everything down the middle and accept losses as legitimate.
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SK
@sonik0909
I don't really mean this to disparage, but I'm puzzled about the point of this. Is it just for the fun of making predictions and hopefully securing bragging rights? Is it for the use of placing bets?
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kiko
@kikonuke
Trump's problem is that he has promised a lot and if he doesn't deliver, especially with inflation, many voters may be disappointed.
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Kai John
@JohnKaiCrypto
The United States is designed to default to just two parties 8. not happening 9. how easy it is to hack an election and why no one dares to talk about it
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Jimmy Rustles
@JimmyRu52630895
“A third party is a significant factor at some point in 2028 at 20%.” God I hope so. People have never seemed more indifferent to the libertarian party though so hard to see this unless it’s a popular celebrity running.
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Alexander Kvenvolden 🇺🇦
@AlexKven
I first thought Trump's attitude about DST spelled good news for the Sunshine Protection Act as a compromise since that's been an ongoing effort (even accidentally passed the senate a few years ago), but that might be affected by the republican cosponsor becoming Sec of State.
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Cliff Mitchell
@Cliff_Mitch
Not reading it but I’ll bet it says Dems are favored by a percentage of 55% but the margin of error could be as much as 10%. Also guessing that the polling samples that were analyzed were between 3 and 7 people over a term of 3 .5 hours. 🥱
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stella
@stella17449261
My prediction is the Trump movement goes from strength to strength and after a crushing midterm loss for the Democrats, the entire party has to restructure, because the Democratic Party as it has been, is dead.
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Dusty Fyodor
@DustyFyodor
Are you willing to put your money behind your probabilities? And just so it's clear, no matter how low your probability is, you're never wrong unless it's zero, right? So what's this "willing" business?
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Lennon Barnes
@_lennonbarnes_
No way is the country voting a Democrat president in after four more years of Trump. This first week makes it obvious that our country's problems are the result of the Democrats creating and not wanting to fix the problems.
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TA
@tjbdanderson
Being a Democrat isn't cool right now. But they have over a year yo change it. Biden lost NC for several years for Democrats for senate. GA is in play for Republicans in 2026, especially if Kemp runs. If Trump keeps winning, everything could get better for Republicans.
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Steven Rapelje
@StevenRapelje
Did you give a probability percentage for Democratic wins in 2026 being overthrown by the US Attorney General under Trump's decree of "election integrity?"
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PolAutismo
@PolAutismo
dem trifecta would be more believable if their recent response to Trump's executive orders was more than "prescription drug prices" and "what about eggs" they're completely lost
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Rycrmml
@rycrmml
In a normal world, these look like reasonable predictions. However, I consider the key question to be whether the system can keep him from doing anything he wants. For instance, would he accept the 22nd amendment? If he were to try again, would the Supreme Court back him?
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Larry Nims
@5327Anims
After reading your predictions and keeping in mind you are Democrat. How did this affect your predictions? How does this affect your credibility? You failed to get your predictions right in 2024.
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