New blog on desalination. I think solar plus matched desal can get below 10c/m^3, cheap enough that we can put 5 million acre feet into Nevada, terraforming about 1500 miles of valleys and waterways in that state (>90% remains unchanged though) and creating space for tens of millions of people to find wealth and opportunity in the process.
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The big problem with desal now is that the most efficient methods create a gallon of toxic hypersaline brine for every gallon of freshwater. Cleaning that hypersaline brine is what my company Cetos Water works on.
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My impression reading this is that you talk about pumping water uphill with "canals", but it seems that to actually do that, you'd need a pipeline or something that can maintain pressure. Or am I missing something?
Do you think solar plus matched desal is a better/cheaper option than something like solar plus MOF-303 at industrial scale?
Perhaps a silly question but one Iโve always wondered. Why do you need to desalinate first?
Is this you baiting entrepreneurs into being a freshwater suppliers for your terraformers? 
I love the grand vision Casey! It's fun to explore what a world of clean energy abundance could enable! But you peg solar costs at 20ยข/W here, when projects today are more like $1/W. You are confident in another 80% reduction in installed costs? Module costs are almost free now
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The exact same people that yell "Why don't you Terraform Earth first." will be standing in line to stop anyone from Terraforming Earth... First. They don't want soloutions, they want the problems to be activists for.
I love this plan.
That is a fantastic idea! Two other places that could benefit from this kind of thinking are the Australian outback and the Sahara. Nuclear would be the way to go IMO.
Adding water to existing cities in The West is a great idea, but encouraging further sprawl into uninhabited areas is a mostly bad idea.
Desalination on the coast to feed CA cities paired with cutting CA portions of Colorado River flow (to supply Las Vegas & Phoenix) works.
No
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I'm not sure terraforming is justified until farmland becomes more valuable. Turning things green doesn't matter when population density is dictated by pure economics - hence why it's highest on the coasts.
But it does show that the Earth can support much higher populations.
How important are batteries for this?
Are the inefficiencies associated with bringing RO units on & off as the solar availability cycles during the day inherent in the RO process or is it simply the necessary excess of RO capacity (to meet peak power)?
Why use batteries? Is maximizing the desalination utilization worth the increased cost of electricity?
I would not be surprised if desalination efficiency could be traded off with cost.
Solar can generate cheap, but unreliable power. But, we don't need water generation 24/7.
Sea of Cortez presents a much better opportunity for solar powered desalination but challenges there are legal and societal.
If you take into account the potential revenue from lithium that could be extracted from the brine byproduct, that can lower the cost future
With all the government land we can do it with little to no disruption to cities as well
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Yes please make it so sir
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i want you to be a science consultant for our game studio. this concept of terraforming the american west is primo material
There is a long ignored plan in Western Australia called the "Pilbara water scheme". A. Like called Ron Coleman has been trying to get it to happen. Re-route some of the water from mines to farmers. Would be awesome like the Nevada one.
Why not divert some of the flow from the Columbia River into these areas? Thereโs a ton of fresh water going straight into the ocean. What could 10% of that flow do to the Great Basin?
I havenโt researched this idea and donโt know the second order effects, but this seems easier
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I am shocked no one has done this at the Salton Sea. It used to be the playground of southern cali and even had its own fishing fleet. The desalination brine is almost perfect for the salinity of the lake creating win win.
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Recent geopolitical tensions are pushing up gas costs, potentially making coal more competitive for power generation. This shift could increase demand for carbon permits.
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Excellent post!
Invest only $16B to create at least $1T of value?
NW increased 2x this amount just this week, so perhaps he'd have some change to spare?
Genuine curiousiy question. Does this cost include disposing the salt somewhere safely? What do we with the salt byproduct after desalinating?
Many of the basins were like that just 5000-8000 years ago. It really wouldn't be a big departure from what nature does.
Thoughts on cloud seeding? Seems like it could be more cost efficient, though possibly less predictable or precise.
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If you face challenges on the ecological side, I recommend Andrew Millison's channel. This video is apropos:
Is there any evidence of a willingness to live in Nevada under any circumstances?
Love this, desal should be one of the many curtailment strategies....when there's too much energy on the grid, start the pumps, that simple.
Its only a matter of time
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We should do this, but I want to use nuclear weapons to redirect Canadian rivers from the Arctic to Nevada and the American Southwest instead.
1) Nuclear's obviously better than solar, which is only cheap due to Chinese subsidies.
2) Eco-Nazis will never approve either the water pipelines or the habitat destruction of whatever desert species they can find & call "endangered."
Elon and Trump should terraform the American desert West.
Dems would ever do this, and only Trump at the helm of the GOP can.
all you need do is build fission power plants to cover 150% of baseload and you can do all the foolishness you want
Casey, have you considered a California ballot initiative? It would provide funding and a regulatory workaround -- the state would be required to fund and implement it.
You want to pump Pacific Ocean water to Nevada, use solar power to desalinate it, use the desal water to create oases in Vegas and Reno, and then pump the brine back to the ocean?
Thats an impressive amount of middlemen youโre creating there.
If you could take these same analytical tools and point them at getting enough of western China into wheat production as to zero-out their current imports, well that would really do it for me.
Even if it comes out an objective "no", it'll still help.
I mean you can Terraform Mars too if you like but Nevada is a lot closer...
Nice idea, in principle. Costs are not that low yet. Also not sure about demand. Surely people move to the South-West but not in such huge quantities.
Lots of nice places around the world where one could try. Desalinated water from the Mediterranean could be brought into the Qattara depression and green the whole Egypt for example
Thank you, super cool! I have nature on my mind atm, and wonder--is there a nature angle here too? Eg could this work in a scheme to compete with (marginally) saving nature in the Amazon (or other lush+vanishing places), for instance, by making new wild forest in Nevada?
I always loved the idea of the "solar desal tower".
Dunno if it was bunk science, though.
Attractive idea ... a passive struct that pumps out "clouds" that give you locally higher humidity.
Followed! This concept has always intrigued me. Iโve wondered if desalination could be used to combat the effects of climate change and address some of the issues water shortages have created/will create.
Isn't the main problem with desalination the cost of piping the water rather than actually desalinating it?
Actual question: Pipes and pumps and getting it up over the mountains?
What would putting all the water in the desert do for the weather in that area and east of it? Seems like you could change weather patterns in ways that might not be well understood.
But getting that much seawater to NV would be one of the bigger engineering projects ever attempted.
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Offshore Solar + Desalination + Agriculture = floating food basket. Not limited by land area if you use magnesium from the sea as the main structural support.
Desal-ing artesian or ocean water tho
As if the rev osmosis wasnโt energy intense, gotta power the pumping from the coast over a mtn range too
Artesian comes with its own issues
I don't think enough people have thought about how transformative cheap solar could be.
May this grow organically? I mean simple home owners installing PV and small desalinization units to grow a garden in arid places?
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Terraforming in southern Florida had disastrous consequences for some amazing ecosystems: byscane bay and Everglades. Idk anything about Nevada.
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