Something has broken tonight in the bond market. We are seeing a disorderly liquidation.
If I had to GUESS, the basis trade is in full unwind.
Since Friday's close to now ... the 30-year yield is up 56 bps, in three trading days.
The last time this yield rose this much in 3 days (close to close) was January 7, 1982, when the yield was 14%.
This kind of historic move is caused by a forced liquidation, not human managers make decisions about the outlook for rates at midnight ET.
Conversation
It keeps going, the 30-year yield is now 5.00%!
As chart shows, since Sunday Night, 54 hours ago, the 30-year is up 67 basis points. Cannot find a move like this in my database.
The only overlay is the 30-year Gily blowing up during the Liz Truss moment" in September 2022. That
S&P futures are down another 100 points or 2% tonight as I write. This sell-off might not be about tariffs but on the realization that the bond market is broken/breaking.
Markets are fragile. Tariffs broke the bond market and now this decline is about this realization.
---
A
I don't think this is China selling bonds to "punish" the US over rates.
There are no good daily statistics to measure this. But I still contend that if this were happening, the dollar would be declining. The Dollar Index (DXY) is up since Thursday's low, suggesting net foreign
By the way the US Treasury has an auction of $39 billion of 10-year notes on Wednesday and $22 billion of 30-year bonds on Thursday.
Should be "interesting" to see who wants these Treasuries in the middle of this chaos.
Another sign of how broken things are ...
Since Liberation Day, Crude oil has collapsed 21%. At $57, it is at its lowest level since April 2021 ... or the lowest point since the Ukraine War started in March 2022.
As noted above, over the last three days, bond yields are soaring
When the world's largest and most important bond market breaks/is dysfunctional ... knock on effects happen.
*JAPAN’S 40-YR YIELD RISES 32BPS TO HIGHEST SINCE DEBUT IN 2007
Jim, what odds do you place for the FED to do an emergency intervention by morning ?
New 3x Leveraged and -3x Inverse Leveraged #Energy ETNs are now trading. For sophisticated traders only. $WTIU & $WTID Learn more: hubs.li/Q01Cm4S-0
This is what structural stress looks like. When basis trades unwind this violently, it’s not about macro narratives—it’s about risk limits, margin calls, and liquidity gaps.
These aren’t decisions made by people—they’re made by models under pressure. And they always move faster
It's probably enough that the leverage from traditional software based trading by hedge funds could cause this, given the extraordinary geopolitical environment. But we shouldn't discount that the use of AI has introduced new and untested systemic risk to markets.
real time ZH breaking it but premium...I wonder why this was not a topic 2 weeks ago and none of the fintwit or my hedge fund connects even mentioned this they were too busy trying to catch a falling equity knife and sell puts ... yes sell puts on blue chips at least people I
New 3x Leveraged and -3x Inverse Leveraged #Energy ETNs are now trading. For sophisticated traders only. $WTIU & $WTID Learn more: hubs.li/Q01Cm4S-0
USA has too much debt to sustain these high interest rates a long time. Emergency cutting rates might not push the real yields for long-term bonds down, unless the market forces are totally blind.
Why to purchase very-long term (10-year or more) at low rates?
I think even a
The Treasury basis trade involves buying cash Treasuries and shorting Treasury futures to capture tiny price differences using leverage.
When volatility spikes and funding costs rise, these trades become unprofitable or trigger margin calls, leading to massive, disorderly
So basically China causing this blowup and prob not even really selling yet?
I was one week ahead of schedule on this. Thanks for playing
Very interesting and insightful thread.
Thanks for sharing!
What do you think would happen if China really starts to sell its US bonds? Dollar down, yes, but what else? How can this impact the US and the world’s economy?
Can the fed buy back with enough volume?
New 3x Leveraged and -3x Inverse Leveraged #Energy ETNs are now trading. For sophisticated traders only. $WTIU & $WTID Learn more: hubs.li/Q01Cm4S-0
The most probable cause is China sending a message. A 104% tariff is a trade war. Could get very interesting. China pulling funds illuminates the unsustainable imbalance.
For those that think this is a basis trade unwind / forced liquidations, and not “fundamentals”, is the trade just long 10/30ys? Or is that missing something obvious
Who could it be?
Wow. Thank you. I’ve been staring at what is going on w bonds, fx, oil etc for past hour. Great summary.
Credit risk rising:
Quote
Marko Bjegovic
@MBjegovic
The 10yr yield is almost at 4.24%.
It was at 3.95% Friday.
#recession risks haven't gone down, but the 10yr yield went up a lot this wk.
Credit risk rising?
Show more
It seems strange,
Trump posted the 10 -Year yield meme video on Friday, April 4th (saying that Trump was playing 4dChess). Sunday, April 6th, on his way back to White House he is asked about the video for the first time and asked if it was part of his strategy. It seems a bit
New 3x Leveraged and -3x Inverse Leveraged #Energy ETNs are now trading. For sophisticated traders only. $WTIU & $WTID Learn more: hubs.li/Q01Cm4S-0
Ok, no rate cuts and no QE. What then, Jim?, should they just pray for a miracle to happen?
This sounds like it’s going to get ugly
And an Treasury auction on Wednesday will only make this worse driving yields higher
The Fed may have to come in and supply liquidity to the bond market
Quote
Cathie Wood
@CathieDWood
As Zerohedge notes, this swap spread is suggesting serious liquidity issues in the US banking system. This crisis is calling out for some kind of Mar-a-Lago Accord on free trade, in tandem with serious support from the Fed? No more time to waste. x.com/zerohedge/stat…
Ok disorder in the bond market. Still what is it mean. Fed can come in to help sure but as said that is moral hazard. The hedge funds have to take the loses. The market is self correcting so someone will buy these very cheap bonds. Stock market can go haywire during this though.
Hi Jim. I realize I tend to only comment when I disagree with you, which is rare. I follow you, and have since my days at Capital Group, because I think you're awesome. This is some valuable insight you are sharing here. Thank you.
Oh noes!!!
Will real estate prices plummet?
That’s not good…since the market value was way over valued…much like the stock market! 
New 3x Leveraged and -3x Inverse Leveraged #Energy ETNs are now trading. For sophisticated traders only. $WTIU & $WTID Learn more: hubs.li/Q01Cm4S-0
Quote
PiQ
@PiQSuite
JAPAN BOJ, MOF, FSA:
TO HOLD MEETING TO DISCUSS INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL MARKETS
TO HOLD MEETING AT 0700 GMT
Show more
I would like to just point out that:
The United States started a trade war on bad math
And China has probably modeled 1000 scenarios of a trade decupling with the United States
We are COOKED.
Holy shit
But no comment on the 50 basis point move the other way a few days ago?
Is this China dumping or a hedge fund going bust? It is extraordinary by my standards. Yes, it seems very disorderly to me.
The Chinese are dumping bonds. There is nothing "disorderly" about it. They can't do it for very long as they only hold 2%.
I was just about to put an estate trust in a money market mutual fund that was supposedly safe but maybe I should hold off?
New 3x Leveraged and -3x Inverse Leveraged #Energy ETNs are now trading. For sophisticated traders only. $WTIU & $WTID Learn more: hubs.li/Q01Cm4S-0
I hedged with a token on the solami chain :
Disorderly liquidations often hint at deeper issues. Could this unravel other markets too? 
Respect the trend the trend is your friend …from 1980 when I started work until 2020…40 years…inflation fell, yields fell, interest rates fell. The trend is now up and the new normal is 5-6% long bonds with spikes above.
You thought you would engage in extortion with all the countries of the world.
Bessent helped Soros break the Bank of England. Now he's going to help Trump break the Treasury of the United States.
New 3x Leveraged and -3x Inverse Leveraged #Energy ETNs are now trading. For sophisticated traders only. $WTIU & $WTID Learn more: hubs.li/Q01Cm4S-0
Yes...Thank You Jim...
This is my guess...
It's out of Europe or Asia basis trade hedge funds.
The PBOC liquidation Tards are over the top.
its an inflation spike, we saw this in 2022...
Quote
David Sacks
@DavidSacks
Where is Powell? Where is Yellen? Stop this crisis NOW. Announce that all depositors will be safe. Place SVB with a Top 4 bank. Do this before Monday open or there will be contagion and the crisis will spread.
New 3x Leveraged and -3x Inverse Leveraged #Energy ETNs are now trading. For sophisticated traders only. $WTIU & $WTID Learn more: hubs.li/Q01Cm4S-0
There exist humans with different time zones.
What’s your midnight is someone’s else’s lunch.