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Something has broken tonight in the bond market. We are seeing a disorderly liquidation. If I had to GUESS, the basis trade is in full unwind. Since Friday's close to now ... the 30-year yield is up 56 bps, in three trading days. The last time this yield rose this much in 3 days (close to close) was January 7, 1982, when the yield was 14%. This kind of historic move is caused by a forced liquidation, not human managers make decisions about the outlook for rates at midnight ET.
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David Watson 🥑
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It keeps going, the 30-year yield is now 5.00%! As chart shows, since Sunday Night, 54 hours ago, the 30-year is up 67 basis points. Cannot find a move like this in my database. The only overlay is the 30-year Gily blowing up during the Liz Truss moment" in September 2022. That
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S&P futures are down another 100 points or 2% tonight as I write. This sell-off might not be about tariffs but on the realization that the bond market is broken/breaking. Markets are fragile. Tariffs broke the bond market and now this decline is about this realization. --- A
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I don't think this is China selling bonds to "punish" the US over rates. There are no good daily statistics to measure this. But I still contend that if this were happening, the dollar would be declining. The Dollar Index (DXY) is up since Thursday's low, suggesting net foreign
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By the way the US Treasury has an auction of $39 billion of 10-year notes on Wednesday and $22 billion of 30-year bonds on Thursday. Should be "interesting" to see who wants these Treasuries in the middle of this chaos.
Another sign of how broken things are ... Since Liberation Day, Crude oil has collapsed 21%. At $57, it is at its lowest level since April 2021 ... or the lowest point since the Ukraine War started in March 2022. As noted above, over the last three days, bond yields are soaring
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When the world's largest and most important bond market breaks/is dysfunctional ... knock on effects happen. *JAPAN’S 40-YR YIELD RISES 32BPS TO HIGHEST SINCE DEBUT IN 2007
This is what structural stress looks like. When basis trades unwind this violently, it’s not about macro narratives—it’s about risk limits, margin calls, and liquidity gaps. These aren’t decisions made by people—they’re made by models under pressure. And they always move faster
It's probably enough that the leverage from traditional software based trading by hedge funds could cause this, given the extraordinary geopolitical environment. But we shouldn't discount that the use of AI has introduced new and untested systemic risk to markets.
real time ZH breaking it but premium...I wonder why this was not a topic 2 weeks ago and none of the fintwit or my hedge fund connects even mentioned this they were too busy trying to catch a falling equity knife and sell puts ... yes sell puts on blue chips at least people I
USA has too much debt to sustain these high interest rates a long time. Emergency cutting rates might not push the real yields for long-term bonds down, unless the market forces are totally blind. Why to purchase very-long term (10-year or more) at low rates? I think even a
We get the data with considerable delay but you‘ll see in June that China‘s treasury holdings will be much lower than what the currently available and stale data shows.
The Treasury basis trade involves buying cash Treasuries and shorting Treasury futures to capture tiny price differences using leverage. When volatility spikes and funding costs rise, these trades become unprofitable or trigger margin calls, leading to massive, disorderly
Very interesting and insightful thread. Thanks for sharing! What do you think would happen if China really starts to sell its US bonds? Dollar down, yes, but what else? How can this impact the US and the world’s economy? Can the fed buy back with enough volume?
The most probable cause is China sending a message. A 104% tariff is a trade war. Could get very interesting. China pulling funds illuminates the unsustainable imbalance.
For those that think this is a basis trade unwind / forced liquidations, and not “fundamentals”, is the trade just long 10/30ys? Or is that missing something obvious
Who could it be?
list in order the countries, companies and other entities in order of largest holders of US treasuries
Answer by Grok
Here’s a list of the largest holders of U.S. Treasury securities, combining countries, companies, and other entities, based on the most recent available data as of December 2024 (for foreign holders) and broader ownership categories for domestic entities. Note that precise data on specific companies or private entities holding U.S. Treasuries is not comprehensively detailed in public sources, as the U.S. Treasury primarily tracks foreign countries and broad domestic categories (e.g., Federal Reserve, mutual funds). I’ll provide the most accurate ranking possible, prioritizing countries and major entity categories, with explanations where data is less specific. Largest Holders of U.S. Treasury Securities (in Order) United States Government (Intragovernmental Holdings) Amount: Approximately $6.9 trillion (as of mid-2024, latest detailed breakdown). Details: This includes trust funds like the Social Security Trust Fund ($2.8 trillion as of June 2024), the Military Retirement Fund ($1.6 trillion), and other federal retirement and Medicare funds. These are debts the U.S. government owes to itself, making it the single largest holder category. Federal Reserve (U.S. Central Bank) Amount: Approximately $4.6 trillion (as of early 2025 estimates, down from a peak of $8.96 trillion in April 2022). Details: The Federal Reserve holds U.S. Treasuries as part of its monetary policy operations. It has been reducing its holdings since 2022 to combat inflation, but it remains one of the largest single entities holding Treasuries. Japan (Foreign Government) Amount: $1.0598 trillion (as of December 2024). Details: Japan is the largest foreign holder of U.S. Treasuries, driven by its economic strategy to invest abroad due to low domestic yields and to manage the yen’s value. China (Mainland, Foreign Government) Amount: $759 billion (as of December 2024). Details: China is the second-largest foreign holder, though its holdings have declined over the past decade as it manages its currency and trade surplus with the U.S. United Kingdom (Foreign Government) Amount: $722.7 billion (as of December 2024). Details: The UK ranks third among foreign holders, with its holdings influenced by its financial sector and economic ties to the U.S. Mutual Funds (Domestic Private Sector) Amount: Approximately $3-4 trillion (estimated as part of the broader "public debt" held by U.S. investors, latest data from mid-2024). Details: Mutual funds, including bond funds, hold a significant portion of U.S. Treasuries on behalf of individual and institutional investors. Exact figures vary, but they are a major domestic category. Luxembourg (Foreign Government/Custodial Holdings) Amount: $423.9 billion (as of December 2024). Details: Luxembourg’s holdings are largely custodial, representing investments by wealthy individuals and firms using its status as a financial hub. Cayman Islands (Foreign Government/Custodial Holdings) Amount: $418.9 billion (as of December 2024). Details: Similar to Luxembourg, the Cayman Islands’ holdings reflect its role as a tax haven and base for investment firms. Canada (Foreign Government) Amount: $378.8 billion (as of December 2024). Details: Canada’s holdings reflect its close economic relationship with the U.S. Belgium (Foreign Government/Custodial Holdings) Amount: $374.6 billion (as of December 2024). Details: Belgium’s figures are often linked to custodial accounts, including Euroclear, a major securities clearinghouse. Pension Funds (Domestic Private Sector) Amount: Approximately $2-3 trillion (estimated as part of public debt holdings, latest data from 2023-2024). Details: Private pension funds in the U.S. invest heavily in Treasuries for stability and long-term returns. State and Local Governments (Domestic Public Sector) Amount: Approximately $1.5-2 trillion (estimated, part of public debt breakdown as of 2023). Details: U.S. state and local governments hold Treasuries in their investment portfolios and pension funds. Ireland (Foreign Government/Custodial Holdings) Amount: $339.4 billion (as of December 2024). Details: Ireland’s holdings are tied to its role as a hub for international finance and tech companies. France (Foreign Government) Amount: $332.3 billion (as of December 2024). Details: France holds Treasuries as part of its foreign reserves and investment strategy. Switzerland (Foreign Government) Amount: $298.7 billion (as of December 2024). Details: Switzerland’s holdings reflect its strong financial sector and currency management policies. Notes on Companies and Other Entities Private Companies:** Specific companies (e.g., BlackRock, Vanguard) are not individually listed in Treasury data as holders because their investments are aggregated under categories like "mutual funds" or "other investors." These firms manage trillions in assets, including Treasuries, but exact amounts per company are proprietary or not publicly broken out. Banks and Insurance Companies:** U.S. commercial banks and insurance companies collectively hold hundreds of billions in Treasuries (estimated at $1-2 trillion combined), but no single entity rivals the top foreign countries or domestic categories like the Federal Reserve. Total U.S. Debt Context:** As of April 2025, the total U.S. national debt is approximately $37 trillion, with $28.88 trillion held by the public (foreign and domestic) and the rest intragovernmental. Foreign holders account for about $8.5 trillion (23-29% of total debt, depending on the metric). Limitations The ranking prioritizes countries and major entity types due to data availability. For foreign holders, I used December 2024 figures from the U.S. Treasury’s TIC data. For domestic entities, I relied on broader estimates from 2023-2024, as specific company-level data isn’t publicly detailed. Smaller countries (e.g., Taiwan, Hong Kong) and entities like hedge funds or individual investors exist but are lower in the ranking and often grouped under "All Other" categories. If you’d like a deeper dive into a specific category or entity, let me know!
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Wow. Thank you. I’ve been staring at what is going on w bonds, fx, oil etc for past hour. Great summary.
Credit risk rising:
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Marko Bjegovic
@MBjegovic
The 10yr yield is almost at 4.24%. It was at 3.95% Friday. #recession risks haven't gone down, but the 10yr yield went up a lot this wk. Credit risk rising?
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It seems strange, Trump posted the 10 -Year yield meme video on Friday, April 4th (saying that Trump was playing 4dChess). Sunday, April 6th, on his way back to White House he is asked about the video for the first time and asked if it was part of his strategy. It seems a bit
This sounds like it’s going to get ugly And an Treasury auction on Wednesday will only make this worse driving yields higher The Fed may have to come in and supply liquidity to the bond market
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Cathie Wood
@CathieDWood
As Zerohedge notes, this swap spread is suggesting serious liquidity issues in the US banking system. This crisis is calling out for some kind of Mar-a-Lago Accord on free trade, in tandem with serious support from the Fed? No more time to waste. x.com/zerohedge/stat…
Ok disorder in the bond market. Still what is it mean. Fed can come in to help sure but as said that is moral hazard. The hedge funds have to take the loses. The market is self correcting so someone will buy these very cheap bonds. Stock market can go haywire during this though.
Hi Jim. I realize I tend to only comment when I disagree with you, which is rare. I follow you, and have since my days at Capital Group, because I think you're awesome. This is some valuable insight you are sharing here. Thank you.
Oh noes!!! 😱 Will real estate prices plummet? That’s not good…since the market value was way over valued…much like the stock market! 😂
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PiQ
@PiQSuite
JAPAN BOJ, MOF, FSA: TO HOLD MEETING TO DISCUSS INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL MARKETS TO HOLD MEETING AT 0700 GMT
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I would like to just point out that: The United States started a trade war on bad math And China has probably modeled 1000 scenarios of a trade decupling with the United States We are COOKED.
Is this China dumping or a hedge fund going bust? It is extraordinary by my standards. Yes, it seems very disorderly to me.
I was just about to put an estate trust in a money market mutual fund that was supposedly safe but maybe I should hold off?
Respect the trend the trend is your friend …from 1980 when I started work until 2020…40 years…inflation fell, yields fell, interest rates fell. The trend is now up and the new normal is 5-6% long bonds with spikes above.
its an inflation spike, we saw this in 2022...
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David Sacks
@DavidSacks
Where is Powell? Where is Yellen? Stop this crisis NOW. Announce that all depositors will be safe. Place SVB with a Top 4 bank. Do this before Monday open or there will be contagion and the crisis will spread.
There exist humans with different time zones. What’s your midnight is someone’s else’s lunch.