OK, fine, I wrote about the prediction markets. What I think people don't realize is that it's certainly plausible that there's too much whale/rec money for the market to clear to an efficent price, this can happen with big sporting events too.
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Previously, you noted your model's correspondence with betting markets as a point in its favor. Now, you seem to think it more likely that a few wealthy individuals are throwing away their money because they feel like it.
This is Nate's worst apology ever. The NPV contract will move only if the EC expectation exceeds 312. The correlation may be positive, but it is offset.
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I agree on the whale theory. However, it could also be the belief that popular vote will still be close to same but Trump more certain to win PA
? If Pennsylvania moves R by 100k the election is over. And K still wins popular vote easily. That’s a wild statement.
its likely a reaction to the PA market going trump +10 in the last week.
Don't agree with this at all. It's entirely possible for new information to substantively raise the odds that Trump wins the EC without significantly changing the odds he wins the PV. Everybody knows one is far more likely than the other
This market barely moved too + Kalshi hasn’t moved much
This really doesn’t hold water. The rally began around 6:50am this morning (my time) it’s now around 12 hours later. You have one person buying and immediately selling over 100k in that hour. Nothing until 3 hours later. The same buyer bought 20 hrs earlier and if barely budged
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sensitivity to small changes isn't the same
won't be perfectly correlated
(i.e. small changes have outsized impact on EC outcome)
Would’ve been easier to say you have no idea what is going on with the betting markets and move on…
Sell Harris Popular vote, Buy Harris EV, Buy Trump pop, sell Trump EV. Financial independence, here I finally am
Not necessarily because Al Gore won the popular vote by half a million, Hillary won the popular vote by 2 mil and Biden won it by 6 mil, so wouldn’t it stand to reason that the trend would continue for the Democrat.
For people who claim betting markets are more prescient than pollsters and election forecasters, here’s 2016:
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Mark Bao
@markbao
Betfair and PredictIt moving toward HRC, +4.3% in last 4 hours
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is living in your head rent free! Your models going forward will always reflect Allan’s predicted winner!
44k well placed votes in three states almost made the EV and Pop vote split a third time. Your model is not correct.
It could also suggest that smart money recognizes if voter ID checks are banned in California and other Democratic areas, it might lead to people voting who shouldn't be eligible to vote.
Net of it, the manufactured media could only hold for so long. She stretched it out for as long as she could, but there is a reason she had THE lowest favorables for a VP ever. She’s not likable, she’s not comfortable in her own skin, she’s in over her head and it shows.
How naive. Bettors are like the experienced scouts in your Signal/Noise book. What you have here is bettors choosing Trump (Pedroia in your book) based on insight and experience.
It’s almost as if wealth inequality in markets makes them inefficient and a central authority should intervene to level the playing field because, in its absence, meaningful data gets distorted.
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Even though 's analysis sometimes annoys me - mostly because it punctures my own finely crafted personal biases - I like that he is consistent on stuff like this.
i feel like we're going to find out this is a16z trying to launder some bad investment on the polygon network
Whale activity!
I never heard it called that before. What a perfect turn of phrase.
Oh, poblano, leave the dark side and come home to the Blue Team...
This is helpful. But I prefer to believe that these are humans putting real money on the line, and will be fairly paid out if they’re right, so it’s possible they know something we don’t.
FWIW PredictIt has also moved toward Trump and no whales there since there is a $850 limit per contract per user.
1) It’s the same whale
2) how correlated should it be, really? Probably not that correlated given recent history
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Why is that necessary at all? A small shift in a few key states won't affect the popular vote but it will certainly affect the electoral vote.
Musk probably one of the biggest whales, and in poker terms, almost certainly a fish too.
There's not a lot of guys like Trump. Who can literally stand up under fire, and say "FIGHT."
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Polymarket trader here. This is accurate. It's all noise and whales coming in, and the market is not that efficient.
But couldn't one think that Trump's chances in the electoral college have improved because of a couple of states without thinking the popular vote calculus has changed much?
I don't know much about you, but judging by this paragraph, I think it's awesome someone with special needs is doing what you do
Definitely possibly. One counter is the predictit markets have moved as well though. As of this tweet, trump has pulled even there. She had a decent lead like a week ago.
Even in your models popular seems highly unlikely, and PA essentially deciding electoral, so I'm not sure how the recent stuff in PA, hurricane responses and escalations in middle east simply not mattering much
Why? He’s not likely to win the popular vote but he’s very likely to win the electoral college.
Why should the popular and electoral odds correlate at all? They are categorically distinct Constitutional artifacts.
Sep 19, Harris peaked at 77% chance to win the popular vote (on Polymarket). On Oct 11, it was 69.6%. An extraordinarily large move in a few weeks. Seismic in a race this close.
"...the popular vote contrast isn't moving towards Trump at all."
Confirmation bias ftw.
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Readers added context they thought people might want to know
After submitting your vote, the site redirects you to another poll with no clear end or result. It creates a loop designed to keep users clicking without providing any meaningful outcomes or actual data.
Click Farms and Click Fraud:
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THIS IS NOT TRUE. The correlation also would require geographic overlays to map to the electoral college votes as popular would be skewed by LA and NYC etc which is the whole reason to KEEP the electoral college.
This seems like a campaign attempt from Trump allies to try and artificially create momentum. No polling data to lead to an increase. Just seems like they are trying to create their own hype
Not exactly. I think Trump will win the EC but I wouldn't necessarily bet money on him winning the popular vote.
Elon effect: it doesn't mean success it means inflationary asset bubble. And when you consider Poly market a crypto betting platform: Elon + Crypto + Betting
Great whale explainer 
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Domer
@Domahhhh
Biggest current user on Polymarket is "Fredi9999" -- who is himself a curiosity.
He is by far the largest holder of Trump shares, checking in at 7.2 million shares and counting.
The user has a total of $6.4 million in positions, all of them on Trump. He also has a lot of cash
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Popular vote to Kamala went from 75.3% to under 72.2% in under a week. That's a seismic shift.
"The popular vote contract isn't moving toward Tump at all" seems like a reach. I don't vote and don't have a horse in this race. Just want to present the data clearly, where possible
I don’t think this is a good argument. It’s extremely likely the popular vote doesn’t align with electoral college results due to how heavily populated dem states are.
The right bet is likely trump wins electoral college, which is what matters, Harris wins popular vote
Why would the popular vote be correlated to EC vote? Popular vote is almost certainly going to be Harris. The EC vote hinges on some very thin margins in a small number of states.
The two should not be heavily correlated at all.
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Trump and his billionaire friend including Elon is trying to bailout Trump in polymarket...this is called market manipulation..
So whales are systematically moving all of the prediction markets towards trump?
Why?
Numbers near 50/50 are going to be very sensitive to the slightest changes.
Numbers towards the edge (like popular vote) are much more stable.
There’s no reason to believe that these two should move in tandem.
wtf. Why would this correlate? Harris is going to win the popular no matter what with Cali and NY. That’s why that market isn’t fluctuating. lol.
Wow Nateopium? They don’t have to move together… it’s likely she wins popular and he wins ec….pretty much everyone paying attention thinks that’s the most likely outcome