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(Above Ghibli-fied image not the real numbers from OpenAI, see theinformation.com/articles/opena)
They expect $50B from ChatGPT. But free-tier Gemini has feature parity with paid-tier ChatGPT!
And $25B from "free user monetization"? No way they win in social vs. Meta, search vs. Google.
And don't get me started on the API. Who today chooses GPT-4.1 in production?
xAI, Anthropic, Google have better/cheaper/faster models. Sure, o3 and o4-mini are great, and there's money to be made, but it won't look like a monopoly.
For AI 2027, FutureSearch found that level of revenue plausible only from agents.
AI 2027 links to our scenario ai-2027.com/research/compu, where agents scale across, customer service, code, R&D – commanding $200 to $2k to $20k/month.
$100B+ is possible in the agent economy, with AI replacing real human labor.
But note: this is a scenario, not a forecast. OpenAI might choose to invest more in ChatGPT or ads. And the research might not pan out.
If they do, here's the best case, AI 2027 scenario:
Also, one interesting trend we noticed:
The fastest time for companies to reach $10b revenue, and then $100b revenue, is decreasing at a rate that is entirely consistent with OpenAI reaching their projected milestones!
How's that for naive extrapolation?
So if agents work out, that's the most plausible scenario for OpenAI reaching their own projections. How likely is it really?
Full revenue breakdown across products in the AI 2027 revenue scenario available at futuresearch.ai/openbrain-reve.