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David Watson 🥑
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Noah you saw the recent transparency on how Hegseth's supposed 8% "cuts" to defense were a total falsehood - they're redirecting spending. It is way too early, on Ukraine, on defense spending, to be claiming we are being "sold out." It's *February*.
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Department of Defense 🇺🇸
@DeptofDefense
A Message From @SecDef To The American Warfighter, And The American Tax Payer.
7:54
We're not being sold out: 1)Defence spending is being reprioritised from big ticket items to more useful drones etc. Hopefully this will also enable budget cuts 2)T will use tariffs instead of subsidies to bring manufacturing stateside 3)TikTok coverage of T/Elon/Israel has
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This was imv your most revealing piece of analysis since the original Cold War II. I am not sure if I agree with this new model, but at least I feel like I am engaging with a model rather than flailing in the dark.
This is not going to happen. There’s a difference between losing a conflict over say…Taiwan…half a world away, and China/Russia invading Western Europe and the lower 48 and imposing these terms on us. One is possible. The other is not.
May be first time in recent couple of months since I am following I disagree with Noah
“Conspiracy theorists will suggest that the U.S. did in fact just lose a major war.” The United States has, in fact, not won a major war in 80 years. “We're being sold out.” Wrong. You were being lied to.
- one could argue Trump wants to withdraw from Eurasia, or could claim he wants to pressure regional partners to truly partner with the US to elevate the engagement. - he doesn't want to "downsize" the military. He wants the military to be focused on areas of strategic
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The whole problem with driving a wedge between Russia and China is that the Chinese and the Russians both just witnessed the US stabbing Ukraine, very recently a US ally, in the back.
The idea is we won’t lose a major war if we focus on the real threat. Let Europe focus on its own security
We can cut 10s of billions on defense without impacting effectiveness - that was literally Obama's "horses and bayonets" line that "won" the 2012 debate. You can't cry that DOGE cuts are meaningless without cutting entitlements and defense and then cry when they do it.
To be clear, your position is that UNLESS the USA engages in foreign entanglements across the globe, then the USA is being sold out. Our founders had a different viewpoint.
No he’s not and that’s never going to happen. Signed - former Naval Aviator. And it’s also good to pry Russia away from China, who the previous administration pushed together. The lack of strategic understanding of our capabilities is honestly getting embarrassing from the
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Perhaps America cannot afford to be world policeman anymore due to the unsustainable spending and debt? That's why Trump wants to retreat to American continent?
I don't follow how not adding huge new tariffs on China = deindustrialization. Aren't we already deindustrialized?
I don't think that's what's happening at all Trump is trying to end stupid foreign wars He wants to make America great again not be a vassal state to China or Russia
Boeing exemplifies the problems with our military industrial complex. A lot of military spending has negative value. Money attracts parasitic bureaucrats who slow down the OODA loop and price gougers. Cutting the fat increases our capability. We’ve spent trillions to lose every
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I am absolutely certain that the “reverse Kissinger” idea is something that’s been considered in “MAGA intellectual” circles. Ramaswamy even mentioned it in a debate. He didn’t invent it himself.But I agree that Trump is far more likely to prefer the “spheres of influence” route.
Is there an overlooked plausibility where the US strategy is to push allies/NATO to take their own security and defense spending seriously, and thereby increase US military exports? Rebalance the trade deficit, reduce US defense spending, and still rebuild industrial capacity?
Not to oversimplify too much but I think it all boils down to money in their & their billionaire friends pockets. There is no geopolitical strategy. I hypothesize they’ve been paid off both in EV minerals from Russia & cash. Then you drawdown US forces world-wide (like 1990’s…
But how could the Metternich-Lindbergh theory work when the Democrats will take back power sooner or later? I mean, the whole idea depends on countries staying committed to it for a reasonable time, but control of the White House and Congress changes pretty rapidly these days.
Are we at war with Eurasia or East Asia? I know we’ve always been at war with one of them I just don’t recall which one.
The metternich theory looks sound. I would also add that China goal is not to split the power with the US. Is to replace it as the most powerful country on earth. They are on track too. As the US will retreat, they will start to flex their muscles.
are our leaders fifth-columnists? are we being stabbed in the back? gonna bookmark this important informed geopolitical analysis to read later
Excellent article. The Right’s obsession with the culture wars has definitely spilled over into its international policy outlook, which is very irresponsible imo.
Absolutely wrong imo: 1) world is multi-polar; let's ack and purposefully embrace that 2) legacy military is very wasteful and needs prioritization and refocus on new tech Cutting military budget significantly is achievable while strengthening it.
"deindustrialize our economy" was already done by US ruling class over the last couple decades especially since the end of cold war
China will take advantage of this. Europe doesn't want to take over America's role in the region, but it will be forced to. Russia isn’t even capable of ensuring stability, so in the end, Europe might wake up. But if China steps in, we’ll gladly let them take the initiative.
I understand wanting to fight communists and woke. I am against it but I understand conservatism. But why the kakistocracy? And why the Nazis? Conservatism should fight Nazis same as it fights Communists.
hopefully we will see pax americana die soon. sooner the world gets rid of great satan, better.
That's because you've lost that major war. Didn't you notice? Oreshnik and the new chinese fighter jets made it clear. That's no point in ignoring the reality anymore.
Withdrawing our tax dollars from Europe is great! Restructuring our military to ONLY defend the country & not empire will strengthen our $ & increase consumer buying power...
This is probably doubly wrong. Not only would it be great to cut the defense budget, but he won't. He's just saying that. This conversation seems dumb.
The US should deploy capital, East Asian allies should deploy know-how, and we should support industrializing developing economies (who are allies) with large populations. Western capital spent decades industrializing the wrong countries. A little bit of state capitalism is good
Buddy, your economy has already been de-industrialized by Financialization, you can't afford your military (Pentagon audits) and you are already being kicked out of Eurasia.
Lol, you're right, you did lose the war. But that's a tradition with America isn't it ... Constantly losing wars they don't remember losing!
We’re bring sold out because it’s unreasonable to think we can police the world, run a proxy war with a nuclear state and not have a border while sending infinite money abroad for “charity”.
𝑼𝒏𝒅𝒆𝒓𝒔𝒕𝒂𝒏𝒅𝒊𝒏𝒈 𝑾𝒉𝒚 𝑻𝒓𝒖𝒎𝒑 𝑾𝒐𝒏 The liberal establishment has colossally failed us and ushered in a dangerous Trump administration in the process. The only answer is a bottom-up working-class movement. ★ NEW ARTICLE ⬇️
China is the new hegemon in terms of manufacturing power and they have conquered the world through commerce. Only porn and communist ideas from their government stop Chinese men from expanding through force, starting wars. Trump got real about the current balance of world power
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The biggest obstacle to industry in the USA is local governments and high property tax rates. Impossible to build a factory without negotiating tax breaks at the state and county levels
The more I think about it the more this appears to be in need of causal inference theory. What Is actually happening with Trump and the maga wing is like quantum physics. . We can just look at the inputs and outputs and then try to assess causality. The process is a mystery
How are we deindustrializing? We are trying to bring more manufacturing back. We are trying to move out of old, big and slow weapons platforms to more, smaller and quicker. Downsizing military? No just not stationing them unnecessarily in other places.
The Lindbergh Theory seems like a loser since it moves the locus of competition with China for spheres of influence from "across the seas" to "down the road". Anecdotally, China sells loads of quality cheap EVs here in Mexico, tariffed out of the US. That's only gonna increase.
1. We are not withdrawing from Europe. We are forcing Europe to take a larger share of its defense which will strengthen the alliance relative to Russia. 2. This releases US resources to deploy in opposition to Chinese expansion in the western Pacific.
In Mr. Robot there was a scene, where Trump’s election is orchestrated by Chinese minister. It aged too good.
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Random question. Say Taiwan is attacked, would the US military need explicit order to defend the island or is there a chance that happens without that?
Answers of your all questions are hidden in the last visit of Kissinger to China. I don't know what message he delivered but everything changed after that.