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Dan Schwarz
@dschwarz26
Refreshing for #Election2024 updates? Pass the time with how history has unfolded in elections similar to Harris v. Trump 2024. Ready? Ok, question 1: When a woman leads a party and runs for President/Prime Minister, how often does she win? Take a guess, then scroll down. ...
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Dan Schwarz
@dschwarz26
futuresearch.ai answer: Women win 53% of the time. Perhaps the main difficulty is getting nominated? Notable losses: Thailand in 2023, France in 2017, US in 2016, Mexico in 2012. Wins: Poland in 2015, Denmark in 2011, New Zealand in 1999, Pakistan in 1988, UK in 1979.
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Dan Schwarz
@dschwarz26
Ok, Question 2, another easy one: How often do former Vice Presidents get elected when they run for President? Think both the US, but also globally. Is it an advantage or disadvantage to being a former VP? Take a guess, then scroll down. ...
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Dan Schwarz
@dschwarz26
FutureSearch answer: Former VPs win 42% of the time. You maybe thought of Biden, HW Bush. But before that, US VPs had a bad record: Gore in 2000, Mondale in 1984, Humphrey in 1968, Nixon in 1960, Wallace in 1948. (Van Buren won in... 1836!) Similar numbers abroad.
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Dan Schwarz
@dschwarz26
Ok, here’s a trickier one, but just as relevant to Harris v. Trump. Question 3: How often does a former leader win when seeking a non-continuous term? In the US this only happened once. But globally people try this a lot. Are they favored? Take a guess, then scroll down: ...
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Dan Schwarz
@dschwarz26
FutureSearch answer: former leaders win non-consecutive elections 78% of the time. (Why?) Notable wins: Brazil in 2022, Chile in 2017, Israel in 2009, Italy in 2008 (and 2001!), UK in 1974. Notable losses: Peru in 2016, Chile in 2009, Argentina in 2003.
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Dan Schwarz
@dschwarz26
Ok, two more! Now for the politically charged ones. Question 4: How often do candidates win when they are facing serious legal and criminal challenges? This doesn’t happen often in first world democracies. But when it does, how do people fare? Guess and then scroll down. ...
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Dan Schwarz
@dschwarz26
FutureSearch answer: candidates facing serious criminal charges win 41% of the time. It's net bad, but it's a small sample size. Notable losses: South Korea in 2022, Israel in 2021, Italy in 2006. The only wins I found were Berlusconi, in 2001 and 2008. Are there others?
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Dan Schwarz
@dschwarz26
Ok last question, the most politically charged. Question 5: When there is political violence (recent political riots / assassination attempts) in a democracy, how often does the incumbent party win? Take your guess, then scroll down: ...
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Dan Schwarz
@dschwarz26
FutureSearch answer: incumbents win amidst political violence 30% of the time. (But violence can come from either side?) Notable incumbent losses: Brazil in 2018, Ukraine in 2004, US in 1968. Notable incumbent wins: Kenya in 2017, Burundi in 2015, Sri Lanka in 2000.
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Dan Schwarz
@dschwarz26
Ok, that’s all for a brief history of elections that rhyme with Harris v. Trump 2024. I hope you found it distracting (while you refresh) to put the unusual dynamics of today’s election into historical context. Nothing is new under the sun… right?
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