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Some real diversity of opinion at Google DeepMind: joins the bet while his colleague takes the other side increasing his existing stake! Total size of pot now $425,000! benjaminmoll.com/growth_bet/
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Ben Moll
@ben_moll
Thanks to @willmacaskill, @SamuelAlbanie, @tomcohen for taking the other side of this bet at 4:1 odds and to @andrewho03 for joining on my side. Here are the final terms we agreed on benjaminmoll.com/growth_bet/ More (within) ~7 years from now 😃
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David Watson 🥑
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There you’d have to commit the money now I think, no? As in: it would leave your account now rather than in 7 years? But yes someone should start this! I’d be curious where the odds settle
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It’s fun to see where people put their money where their mouth is. But also, who has this kind of money lying around??? Clearly I chose the wrong line of work
Growth will capture the spend on datacentres, chips, electricity etc which will be far below 15%. It never really captures the benefits which maybe 15%+ This is fortunate as most banks and economic system would collapse as growth is theoretically equalish to interest rates