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A lot of the replies to this thread are based on the falsehood that turnout was down in 2024. It was not. If we’re going to reach accurate conclusions about where to go as a party it’s important to nip that bit of misinformation in the bud. See here: cauldron.llc/medium-data-bl

Quote

Adam Jentleson

@AJentleson

Nov 8

Early taxonomy of responsibility: 1. Joe Biden’s profoundly arrogant decision to run again 2. The strategy by groups and their funders to push Harris to take politically disastrous positions in the 2020 primary, thus leaving the people they claim to fight for worse off

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10:53 AM · Nov 9, 2024

96.8K

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David Watson 🥑

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The reason this matters is that some are saying turnout was down and therefore we should move left to inspire more people to vote. This is motivated reasoning in the extreme, especially since there’s not really any evidence that moving left generates higher turnout to begin with.

But also, it’s just not true that turnout was down in 2024! To unpack the post by

@charlotteeffect

linked above, we are still waiting for a lot of votes to be counted, especially in CA.

When you look at the states where all the votes have been counted - including some of the battlegrounds - turnout is on par with 2020, even a tick above. H/t

@charlotteeffect

again

On why it’s important to nip this in the bud, here’s more

@charlotteeffect

, but basically people wanna believe turnout was down because it gives them an easy out to say, “do my preferred policy because that will increase turnout, duh.” Sadly, that is not true.

We need to be clear: this was a persuasion election. Around the same number of people voted in 2024 as 2020, but Trump won because he persuaded people to shift to him. Here are shifts in PA, MI (minus UP but it’s the same there) and WI, plus the entire US. Pretty uniformly red.

Joshua Smithley

Harris is only ~90K behind Biden’s 2020 total in PA. Trump, on the other hand, is ~134K up from his despite the state getting 2020 turnout overall. He just had better persuasion. Lots of time to tackle that.

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Trump secured more Black votes than any Republican Presidential candidate in 48 years. The consultant class and Dem power players are trying to convince themselves than no Black voter problems exist. Accountability requires acknowledging failure and many don’t want to do this.

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I mean, turnout absolutely was down in some places. Here in Ohio, it was down quite a bit, with even Trump receiving fewer votes than 2020.

You’re starting with your “Biden was the problem” and ignoring any actual new data. There’s zero way you can ID “blame” with such “precision” so quickly.

richard delahide ferrier

@DelahideFerrier

I fully agree.

@nancyspecialist

I consider you a kind of Goebbels like figure

It was down in places like Philly where Dems needed it to win

Voter turnout throughout Philly area lower than in 2020

From nbcphiladelphia.com

Standing for Freedom Center

@freedomcenterlu

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From standingforfreedom.com

Turnout may not have been down, but apparently *Dem* turnout was down

Quote

The New York Times

@nytimes

6h

Counties with the biggest Democratic wins in 2020 delivered 1.9 million fewer votes for Kamala Harris this year. The most GOP-heavy counties turned out an additional 1.2 million votes for Donald Trump in 2024, a New York Times analysis shows. nyti.ms/4fIWkNu

@LightningJBlack

Yeah put there were states where turnout was down from 2020. Turnout bring down may not be true across the board but it's true for several states.

Ruh roh

Quote

noah kulwin

@nkulw

Nov 10

Legislative politics washout whining about “gadflies” x.com/ajentleson/sta…

But Harris did receive almost 1mil less votes in NY than Biden (trump got 200k more there). She got 500k less in NJ (trump got 17k more). She did better in Swing States, but Biden got 81 million votes, she won't come close. While Trump will pick up a few million.