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Conor Friedersdorf
@conor64
If this shakes out with the U.S. saving a bit of money while touching off rapid nuclear proliferation it will be the most pennywise, pound foolish move in the history of humanity: marginal savings at the cost of heightened odds of nuclear apocalypse! Trump would go down as history's worst dealmaker.
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eigenrobot
@eigenrobot
on reflection I don't see a path for the viable continuation of us hegemony. we are no longer a reliable partner. my advice to our current allies is to form local alliances amongst yourselves as quickly as possible, and to develop your own nuclear arsenals. good luck x.com/eigenrobot/sta…
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David Watson 🥑
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Deva Hazarika
@devahaz
I was thinking about this very thing earlier (Canada in next post)
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Deva Hazarika
@devahaz
ChatGPT and Grok deep research agreed on how long it would take each of these countries to develop nuclear weapons. All could be accelerated to varying degrees with external assistance.
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Moody Blueliner
@MoodyBlueliner
It's a moot point. With a rising China and a Europe that refuses to rearm, we simply don't have the resources or industrial base to be the sole global hegemon anymore.
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Tom Joanides
@TJoanides
Imagine thinking escalating a *current* war with a nuclear power is *less* likely to trigger a nuclear apocalypse than what you would agree are the “good guys” rearming themselves and providing for their own increased defenses in order to DETER Russian aggression 🤦🏽
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John Stodder Jr.
@johnstodder
Okay, good conventional wisdom, but how long should our former allies wait for the US to come back to its senses? Would Republicans like you favor impeachment now, as a means to regain control over US policy? Or do we just wait and hope for the best?
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Kris
@1444_kris
It’s not about the savings. Martin’s thread, a few nested tweets in, does a great job at highlighting how it’s structural
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Martin Skold
@MartinSkold2
Proponents sense that US hegemony is dysfunctional - I’m not sure they’ve grappled with why, let alone to what degree. Here are some ways the current situation and set of precepts differ from what they should be, using the Cold War as a model: x.com/martinskold2/s…
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Theo Jordan
@Theo_TJ_Jordan
This posturing becomes nothing more than another morality-binary as applied to a military theater, no? Where do I land intellectually here if we take this from the sensational to, we'll, reality, Ukraine? America was to forever fund an unwinnable conflict? That's where we were.
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GrumpyHobbit
@GrumpyHobbit22
When the second combat use of nuclear weapons occurs its origin will be traceable to betraying the country that gave them up in good faith. The more warheads in smaller hands the greater the chance an escape to a terror group.
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xmp125a
@xmp125a
Not only this. Next 9/11 could be nuclear. Imagine small, gun-type design smuggled to US soil by terrorist, stolen from one of the tens of lab feverishly building nukes in most of the West and EU after Trump's actions convincing them that the only thing that can save them from
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Don't Tread
@tastysquirrel7
Europe should have taken responsibility for its own defense decades ago, it is no longer to our advantage to be the world’s policeman. Friendly cooperation with like minded countries - yes. Unpaid guarantor of security, no longer.
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cold bear
@RagnarokBruin
The invasion of Ukraine, the destruction of Libya and the nuclear status of North Korea ensured proliferation, you have to be a genuine fool to think Trump of all things is responsible.
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Thatch
@THATCH_ARISES
And yet, if Ukraine still had its nukes none of this would be happening. So it is ALREADY at Bill Clinton's feet. And of course, us being there could be what trips off a nuclear exchange as readily as what prevents it given our treaty obligations. You suck at geopolitical
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MakewiEatsSpam
@MakewiEatsSpam
The idea that this going to lead to nuclear proliferation is pure speculation. France and UK already have nukes, and I don’t see a real militaristic Europe actually occurring, despite the tough talk.
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Gil-The-Big
@gilthebig
Funneling money endlessly to fight a proxy war with the worlds largest nuclear armed power is what is bringing us closer to WWIII dum dumb.
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Collin Reid
@CREID2852
Leave it to a Libertarian to whine about the US government spending on solving the world's problem. They pursued the pro-China policy after 2000 to have Taiwan lead the outsource jobs of jobs but now want the kids of the laid off workers to fight and pay for US military.
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Collin Reid
@CREID2852
The biggest reason why Trump was elected because the US government and US corporations since Bush Sr. have made other citizens the priority of average US Citizens. Even Obama did it sometimes but he was nothing to compared to both Bush Presidents.
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StephanHart
@StephanHart
Even more costly will be the decreased strength of the American dollar across the world. The US currently enjoys so many advantages due to the world financing with the dollar.
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John Firth 🇨🇦
@johncfirth
Rapid nuclear proliferation is pretty much assured at this point. It's just a question of who and when/how quickly.
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John J. Vecchione
@VecchTweets
He will. The consequences of this foreign policy are predictable. In addition to nuclear proliferation we will create power vacuums which will be filled by bad actors. A host of formerly friendly nations with fewer trade and military ties binding them will emerge.
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qwerty1270
@qwerty12702
The thing is it won't even help most of the countries developing them. A country with a handful of nukes can still be invaded. You need thousands of the things and submarines to hide them on to ensure MAD.
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In the Garden
@hophitupoimen
Let me get this straight: US allies finally getting their act together and taking responsibility for their own defence-as indeed they have been promising to do for 60 years--means nuclear proliferation? That seems ..a bit strange.
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GW
@SurlMudgeon
If you read the core thread this traces to, it’s not a “move” but a reflection of decades of collective foolishness, poor leadership, and global forces. Laying it all at the feet of Trump is a highly uncharitable interpretation.
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Jonathan Schattke
@JMSchattke
No nuclear powers have entered open war, so proliferation is probably the best way to peace on Earth. An armed society is a polite society. - R.A. Heinlein
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Reginald Bologna
@BolognaReg87890
Foreign policy is going to impossible to navigate if even smaller states have access to civilization ending nuclear and bio weapons. And one day someone will find the urge to use them impossible to resist. How will we react to the first Polish A-bomb test? Or Mexican? Egypt? Etc.
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Joshua
@myer80066
If by reliable partner you mean the people who pay for your defense in exchange for unequal trade policy then yes, we are becoming unreliable.
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John Smith
@JohnSmith410846
The deal is we’re not the world’s protector? At US taxpayer expense of course. Connor that was a really bad deal. About time we’re out of it.
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Andy
@andyydnaandy1
Are you suggesting allies, such as Europe , would not responsibly wield any increased military power?
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Justin Mack 🇺🇸
@justindgm
The west is the pro-status-quo faction, the revisionist coalition is the one that wants to conquer territory, change regimes. We *should* be pro-proliferation because nothing cements the status quo more strongly than border states having nukes (Also it’s not like our enemies
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TheChap
@ChapChapperman
Nukes don't kill people, People kill people. Also, there's still the future risk of far-right populist parties winning European country elections. Do we really want THEM having nuclear weapons?
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Lori Taylor
@kjaristi
So you're saying we must pay for everything or Europe and Russia commit suicide. Isn't that the current argument for allowing your child to become trans?
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Tejas Rojas
@tejas_rojas
Remember when nuclear non-proliferation was a thing, and the US and Russia were partners? Did you just fall off a turnip truck?
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Curiouser
@FanofNash13
Darn. Come on Conor. Don’t be so TDS. We get he has issues and misses on things, but not this. Be a part of the honest, normal world. However much your wife lobbies you away from such a normal, common sense stance.
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NotEngaging
@NotEngaging76
US hegemony will eventually end. Either it ends in a controlled shutdown, with the US securing a sovereign sphere of control that includes Canada, Mexico, and most likely Central America down to Panama, or it ends suddenly and catastrophically, with the sudden collapse of the US
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Max Bills
@cuidaddy
Nuclear weapons have proven to be the ultimate defense shield. Once North Korea got them the cat was out of the bag. The future will be smaller spheres of influence defended by nukes
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ลิ่น
@QgFyBpM0ho5D45j
Not 'if' -- it has shaken out. Everyone in the US needs to internalize the fact that the country is no longer given the grace of being an honest actor, or a person you can sign a contract with. Re-electing Trump was the final bad cheque in the credit rating.
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Spacer First Class
@SpacerFC
US is paying more for debt interesting than for DoD and only has <1% of ship building capacity of China, US hegemony is dead, that's a fact. Trump is just the first to internalize this fact and act accordingly, instead of hiding his head in the sand as previous administration.
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RachelJ
@RachelJonesXx
I do not feel sorry for Europeans who subsidized their defense from the US while simultaneously basing their energy policy from the Russians. Then brought in millions of poor uneducated immigrants from Africa and Middle East that they could not assimilate.
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