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Dwarkesh Patel
@dwarkesh_sp
I asked one of the leading scholars on China's political system, Victor Shih (
@vshih2
), how likely is it that China invades Taiwan this decade: "Clearly [Xi's] desire to achieve [reunification] is not so strong that he would take a very risky gamble. Because if that were the case, he would have done it already. He's been in power for 12 years. From his other policymaking we know that he's not a reckless policymaker." I pushed back, and asked whether Zero-COVID indicates that Xi is in fact recklessness. Perhaps the reason Xi hasn't done it yet is that he wants to consolidate the self-sufficiency he's been pursuing over recent years. Full episode out tomorrow.
1:55
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Benjamin Todd
@ben_j_todd
Really weird argument given Xi's explicit strategy is to build up military power to get into a better position. More natural model is that the probability goes up each year as relative military power goes up (and riskiness goes down).
3.3K
Justin Pryor
@Justin_Pryor_
Ohhhh nice. Looking forward to this one. Love the historian/world affairs episodes. Also really appreciate your pushback in this clip to make Victor go further. Makes for a better interview-prying more info out.
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Old Man’s Code
@oldmanscode
I wonder how accurate this is: Here’s an educated “vibes-based” stab at what I’m seeing on that shelf—think of this as a bookshelf mood board rather than a laser-precise laundry list. I’m inferring from color blocks, spine proportions and the kinds of books that often live in
Image
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xy
@chroniclesXY
Too bad that Henry Kissinger passed away - otherwise I would be hugely interested in his opinion on current China (but I guess he probably wouldn’t speak too directly given the current state). His book On China was really impressive. I especially admire his empathy and
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Caillan
@chinafutureclub
China doesn’t need to do anything regarding Taiwan. It’s just patience. The west has shown clearly what happens via Ukraine and political circus what happens when you go against your own familial interests to try and make a far away friend.
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Axel Lieber
@axel_lieber
It would be remarkable if Ukraine had lifted the threshold in Xi's mind. Ukraine has demonstrated utmost determination to defend itself, with or without allies, since 2014. Taiwan on the other hand... one might be forgiven for thinking that maybe they don't care all that much.
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HabaneroHotTakes
@HabaneroTakes
timely topic. according to the intelligence reports they will be ready by 2027 for this. I would think it would actually happen sooner if they see the acceleration in AI the same way the tech leaders in the US do.....
393
MadeofMeat
@freeasaprole
Yeah, he's going to keep building military power until it is no longer a risky gamble. He's on track to be there by the year he's announced.
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scooby snacks
@scoobydsnacks
You should check out Henry Kissinger’s On China. You can read his actual conversations with Mao Zedong. Mao said to Kissinger in the 1970s “right now I don’t want Taiwan, in 100 years I will want it, but not now.” I’d estimate the target date is 2070.
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