Nicolas Fulghum on X: "In September, China's combustion vehicle (ICE) sales dropped to just a third of the market for the first time Battery electric vehicles are getting close to half of the market (47.3%), while Plug-ins added another 19.7%. Only 5 years from >90% to 33% ICE. https://t.co/Q7jJiUKl4K" / X

In September, China's combustion vehicle (ICE) sales dropped to just a third of the market for the first time Battery electric vehicles are getting close to half of the market (47.3%), while Plug-ins added another 19.7%. Only 5 years from >90% to 33% ICE.

3:51 AM · Oct 15, 2026

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Nicolas Fulghum

@nicolasfulghum

19h

Data here:

EV Sales Data Tracker | Ember

From ember-energy.org

I visited Shinsen recently hopefully I spelled that correctly. It was definitely the quietest city I have ever been to. Most cars were EV’s all public transportation buses were EV’s and all scooters were EV’s. Hopefully the United States could turn the corner and realize that

I just took the China EV chart and ran the curve forward for 30 years. It seems the plug-in hybrid peaks next year, then fades. By the 2040s, petrol cars in China are a collector's item. IC went from 90% to 33% in 5 years. On the same path, it's under 10% by 2030 and under 3%

Very similar deal across Asia due to the prolific availability of Chinese EVs. It is a different road out there than 5 years ago.

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Fanatics

@Fanatics

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The US has trailed but the war is likely to accelerate the same shift.

And they are leading right now on power density for battery technology. So their cars will get longer range than US variants currently.

They have to thank to Elon thing Tesla to China

Any idea what caused the big bump recently?

5K

Debris Filter-Site Expert

@_Pete_Robertson

4h

Because they lost 40% of their oil import and had no choice.

will be less 10% in 5 years for new cars

what is with the spike in combustion vehicle registration at the 2026 point? And then what explains the immediate decrease? Also, what explains the overall decrease in combustion vehicle registrations since around 2021

what’s up with the peaks of combustions

Guess that’s why they need all those coal burning plants huh?

@grok

are there any ‘incentives’ for buying an electric/hybrid car in China right now? Are there any ‘disincentives’ for not purchasing one?

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ZaxtR

@AmX_ZaxTr

6h

The scale of China's energy grid is insanely large and highly increasing x.com/elonmusk/statu…

The oil demand lag is what markets will price eventually. China’s vehicle stock turns over ~10% per year — 67% NEV share in new registrations means combustion fleet peaks and starts declining within 5-6 years. IEA projections still don’t fully reflect this fleet math.

👀

Translated from Russian

China is quietly doing what in Europe they are still mostly just talking about. It seems the future is arriving. And, as usual, not where it was most promised.

Great

I am happy to see plug-in hybrids stagnating. This is an abomination that should have never been created. Pure BEVs are the future.

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Banana In The Tailpipe

@TailpipeBanana

5h

If we had unlimited, nearly free electricity generated primarily by burning more coal the rest of the world combined - EVs would probably have a larger share here too.

How many miles per year do they drive those electric vehicles? By percentage, how is the electricity produced in China? What parts of batteries are considered "green" and what components are not? mining methods? which vehicle types are govt subsidized?

Once again, sadly, they are ahead of the US. We instead push everything to fossil fuel dependence.

How many coal fired electric plants have they built in the last 5 years? If you build infrastructure 1st the rest will come

1.7K

Starlink

@Starlink

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That’s since you are free to get electric car license,but hard to get gas car license. Basically China can make combustion vehicle sales down to zero if it likes.