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This. Look at any wargame of Chinese invasion of Taiwan, and typically the only scenarios where it goes well for China is if US are not allowed to use bases in Japan. That’s also why you also see the push to characterize US military bases in Japan as “imperialism.” Obvious psywar
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Kareem Rifai 🌐
@KareemRifai
Why is Beijing in such a panic? China knows that an American defense of Taiwan practically necessitates Japanese involvement. Without the use of US bases in Japan, US fighter/attack aircraft can't effectively participate in a cross-strait war.
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David Watson 🥑
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True, but don’t forget that those bases are within missile range. The Chinese have capability to strike all the way to Guam. You can view the US strategy on open-source. One of those programs is Operation Hellscape.
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Geotactix
@Geotactix
#China: When you see all the glitter cities, like Shanghai or Beijing, spare a moment to think how some people still live in rural china..
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Except the psywar does not work on IndoPacific audiences who all fear Chinese border annexation. This propaganda is only for dumb NATO audiences who are easy to manipulate, who never face actual invasion.
did anyone seriously believe japan wouldn't be fully committed in a Pacific conflict? They literally have no choice and this has been the plan for at least 70 years (though against the soviets)
Only way for China to ensure a successful, low casualties invasion is to grt US and Japan to stay out or neutralise Kadema and other nearby bases including in PH. Doubt if they can be successful here
The entire Yonaguni channel is in AGM-84 range from Yonaguni, significantly complicating any blockade of Taiwan if Japan is a belligerent party.
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Inorder for China to attack Taiwan they'll likely have to bomb Japan first (US airfields located within Japan) but then that would trigger the mutual defense pacts between US and Japan... Kind of a damned if you do damned if you don't scenario for China. That's why the verbal now
You guys live in some weird fantasy world where you constantly imagine China going to war and then when it never happens you repeat the process. There has been no indication from China to invade Taiwan at the moment.
Another piece of Taiwan discourse that seems to fly under the radar is the Island Chain strategy for containing China. The US and its allies believe they can contain the Chinese military to its own waters with presence in Japan, down to the Phillipines and the key, Taiwan.
The question is, will US enter the war at all or Taiwan will be on its own as Ukraine now, having only weapons shipments and financial assistance from the West, but not direct involvement.
Imagine claiming to be in the top 3 of world powers but can’t successfully attack an island beside your country w/o having to first attack another island to get rid of the bases of a different country that is on the other side of the world cuz they pose to much of a threat.
It's like you all lack a working brain, there's no way US is coming out in top even with US bases around china and in Japan, why? Logistics. There's a reason Japan didn't land troops in US in WW2. It's gonna be a nightmare crossing pacific. China is outproducing us and Japan in
This is the Chinese dilemma: try to take out the U.S. bases à la Pearl Harbor and risk a Pearl Harbor backlash, or try to take Taiwan alone without targeting U.S. bases and risk U.S. coming to assist Taiwan
According to every Western think tanks and US military, there had been hundreds of war sim between the West and China, 21 of them are open to the public and the result of every war sin, the answer is the West include Indian total lost and China survive heavily damaged.