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They just narrowly dodged a 4.3% unemployment rate last month and got it this month, but these aren't rounding games. You can see a steady increase over the last two months.
Maybe it's noise, but it is the highest in years and, given everything else we'll see, it's worrying. /2
Here's the breakdown by industry. The first theory of Trumponomics was that tariffs would build up manufacturing work and federal workforce cuts would free up workers for them.
That's failed. Manufacturing lost jobs almost as fast as the federal workforce (-12K vs. -15K). /3
Better way to see that, the slowdown over the past 4 months vs 2024.
This isn't them rebalancing the labor market. It's a fall across basically everything (manufacturing was also falling last year). And now following their health care cuts, medical jobs are finally slowing. /4
Another less clearly stated element of Trumponomics was to bring back jobs for men. However, with tariffs attacking those industries, men have lost 56,000 jobs over the past 4 months. This is CES data.
Women have gained 76% of the jobs in 2025, compared to a regular 50%. /5
Meanwhile another Trumponomics goal was to use deportation quotas to bring jobs back for native-born workers. But, you guessed it, that's also failing.
Amidst the broader weakening, the native-born unemployment rate is at the highest levels since the pandemic. /6
To show that the slowdown is broad, we can look at the 'diffusion index.' or basically the percent of industries that are gaining jobs. It's now below 50% for several previous months, meaning more industries are losing jobs than are gaining them. That happens in slowdowns.
/7
Last month they blamed revisions. But revisions aren't driving these bad numbers with the baseline so low. And revisions are 1 of the few cyclical predictors of oncoming slowdowns.
They should learn from these numbers and turn to pro-growth policies; it may not be too late. 8/8
To change course Trump would have to admit he was wrong. The sun will burn out before that would ever happen.
It is a bad number.
My simplified understanding is that we need ~125k/mth just to keep it even so even throwing up 22k is reflecting 103K people entering the labor market that can’t find jobs.
can you update my number since it is a dated statistic?
It is interesting that you’ve chosen to compare (certainly via rhetoric) vs ‘good’ or prior months and and not vs expectations (which I believe were along the lines of ‘brace for Armageddon’)
Relevant because surely the expectation is that if Trump’s policies turn out to be
You are treating the tariffs/manufacturing strategy as a short term play when it is clearly a long term one.
Cute thread, but all of this is because the Fed is again behind the 8 ball and failed to cut rates when risks to employment materialized.
Um, I thought you all told us that as long as the stock market was at all time highs, everything was great?!?
Idiot
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@amandalouise416
That’s weird… America only created 1,494 jobs in August, yet employers asked the Department of Labor for 20,660 new H-1B workers to start that same month.
In reality, they’ve requested 176,699 new H-1B hires to begin between August and December. Looks like those jobs weren’t x.com/unusual_whales…
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Numbers aren't true these days since they are always corrected later on
Cool story bro. Biden sets the stage and Trump is your foil. Let's talk in 6-9 months.
Americans are about to find what an actual bad economy looks like. They forgot what 2008 looked like.
Manufacturing, construction, and even mining jobs are down. That's pretty damn MAGA!
Trump promised to run the country like his businesses and he's delivering.
All it requires is Republicans in Congress to regrow their spines and this can all be reversed tomorrow.
Democrats are ready and willing to fix this, they just need a handful of Republicans to join them
Never thought anything in the modern era could be more harmful to the U.S. economy than Reaganomics, but here we are.
What a crew of absolute imbeciles we have in the White House, starting with Fatty McShitshispants.
Outside of the direct levers, the anti vax and other terrible policies are going to effect job numbers negatively in indirect ways.
We are cooked.