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More analysis this evening in our own little bubble ->
Any chance you would know percentages? Assuming global consumption has increased at least 4x since the 70s is it comparable or still not even close?
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VKA@vka27
Yes it is !!
Not only on absolute basis but also in relative to world demand basis !!
The world continues to remain complacent!!
20% is not a joke
@DonMiami3 x.com/donmiami3/stat…
Meaningless stats unless you scale vs global demand which is a good bit higher than in the 70's
The Strategic Petroleum Reserve release hit 180 mb/d at peak - but Russia's 11.3 mb/d production represents about 11% of global supply. Even a 50% disruption would dwarf the 1973 Arab embargo's 4 mb/d shock.
Its not so much the oil but all the derivative products and fertilizer inputs.
Now our world is much more interconnected economically vs 50 years ago.
AI bubble and food prices have adverse impacts now.
This can’t be covered up for too long, like actual supply is being blocked off….. hype has nothing to Do with it. Once people realize panic will set in… fill up your gas tanks folks I’m afraid this is a lot more serous than people think
without active USG suppression and manipulation via institutions and hedge funds this would be at $300+ already
The US doesn’t import oil - there will not be a shortage. Prices could go up a bit but there won’t be lines at the gas stations (maybe just for diesel and that’s because of regulation).
Not at all, since the world economy changed and all the big economies are buffered (notably no nation had to touch their strategic reserves, if any did that typically gives months).
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Charlie Robertson
@CharlieTTEcon
Brent oil prices would need to average $218 per barrel this year to match the pain of 1979 or 1980, when the global oil bill was 6.7% of GDP.
That assumes 104mn bpd of consumption and global GDP at $124 trillion
It is less right? Iran sort of fully active. Saudi moved 6mm bpd to red sea, uae 1.5 mm bpd to east side of straight. So like 10mm bpd, rather than the full 20.
It was thanks to the oil crisis that jimmy carter put solar panels on the white house roof, yes? This just might save humanity from climate change and israhell.
Other than the Russia Ukraine war which isn’t similarly comparable. Consider the growth of the oil market during that time. I’d argue it’s pretty comparable.
Me thinks China is going to have strong feelings about this situation real soon.
Iran seems to be the most common denominator.
Break them up and distribute their land to the all nations that they have attacked since this began.
Trump is certain that this shock will be gone by then. That's why he is allowing Russia to sell into the market. It's okay to fund both sides of a war of its Trump but bad when JP Morgan did it. 
Presumably we’re producing more oil now though, so shouldn’t this be given as a proportion of global production to give it context?
I don’t understand how you plan a war with Iran not factoring in they would try to close Hormuz. This was obvious for any war planner.
tell me the SP 500 reaction in in the days, weeks, and months when the five bottom events occurred
This isn't a very good graphic analysis, numbers should be adjusted for global demand and also account for the infrastructure built out to bypass the strait in an emergency. 5-6 million barrels per day can be piped to the red sea and global demand is much higher than other crisis
Clear indication that more pipelines are needed to provide redundancy to route around choke points and that the Mullahs must be defeated to assure political stability in the region.
Does this mean people except the cut yot he supply to be much shorter since the shock seems to be less then those crises?
