What’s the most credible theory for why there’s been a global shift to the right?
Rejection of post-History globalism, open borders, Davos man? Falling birth rates?
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Probably the same thing that caused the last big global shift to the right in the 80’s - energy spike/inflation associated with Covid.
The 2010’s featured the biggest swing left in attitudes in high income democracies in decades!
There’s something very different between this moment (where right wing swing globally is concentrated with young people and immigrants) vs the 2010’s when it was the exact opposite.
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David Shor
@davidshor
Replying to @GodlessLib_CB
Finally got around to looking at this - in this dataset if you do left=Lab+Lib+Green+SNP/Plaid and right=Tory+Reform then you see the right making large relative gains with young voters this year relative to 2019.
docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d
The big story of post-Covid politics has been the right surging with immigrants, very young people, folks who report not following politics closely.
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David Shor
@davidshor
Replying to @davidshor
The immigrant piece of this is really important.
If you take this ecological regression literally, voters born outside the US swung 23% pp against Democrats in 2024, 14% more than you'd expect from race and education, making up more than half of the net votes lost since 2020.
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People really underrate how weird this is.
People who read the news and vote a lot *swung toward Democrats in absolute terms*.
Trump won because people who don’t follow politics closely swung massively toward him.
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David Shor
@davidshor
Replying to @davidshor
Dems saw vote share *increase* in the high turnout neighborhoods but saw very large declines in low turnout areas.
Ecological estimates suggest that Dems lost considerable ground with non-voters and particularly non-white non-voters, consistent with @Nate_Cohn's early polling.
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To me the post parsimonious thing here is inflation - it’s what was responsible for the last big shift right, and immigrants>non-voting non-white>non-voting white/ voting white/non-white rank order is what you’d predict from post-materialism
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David Shor
@davidshor
Replying to @davidshor and @marcushjohnson
It also provides non-trivial predictions, like that an increase in the salience of inflation should move college white and working class non-white voters in different directions even as the salience of racial conflict declines, which is what’s happened in the last two years!
The other thing is it just makes a lot of sense that economic voting would be really concentrated with people who don’t follow politics at all (because they have fewer ideological interests to balance against).
No other explanation really explains the giant voter/non-voter swing
How is "reads the news a lot" verified ? If it's self reported maybe its just picking on a tendency that's higher among liberals.
I frequently see RW people on here who interact with political stuff occasionally but then just say they are disengaged, sports pilled etc
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David Shor
@davidshor
Replying to @davidshor @DmitriThaSheep and 2 others
Regardless of how you define it, you get a situation where the most politically engaged 70% of the population swung toward Democrats a tiny bit while the least engaged 30% swung toward R’a by double digits
"The Democratic Party's actions had left many U.S. citizens feeling humiliated. Signs of a Trump victory were proclaimed well before Biden withdrew from the race. The voters had had enough."
The news media tells Democrats what they want to hear to get subscribers so surprise surprise news consumers vote more heavily Democrat
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David Shor
@davidshor
Replying to @davidshor @DmitriThaSheep and 2 others
Regardless of how you define it, you get a situation where the most politically engaged 70% of the population swung toward Democrats a tiny bit while the least engaged 30% swung toward R’a by double digits
But everyone follows/observes politics to some degree. Walking down the street or driving to work is an assessment of the leadership of your city/county/state/federal govt leadership and management.
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David Shor
@davidshor
Replying to @davidshor @DmitriThaSheep and 2 others
Regardless of how you define it, you get a situation where the most politically engaged 70% of the population swung toward Democrats a tiny bit while the least engaged 30% swung toward R’a by double digits
I mean, feels like as the news became more overtly partisan for Ds that the relative voting habits of the remaining consumers would fairly naturally shift to the left as well.
with a li'l help from someone talented in hacking, imo. See here & on Spoutible for threads that indicate how likely this was.
This supports the thesis that Dems are becoming the low turnout high ed party.
The media won’t tell you, and woke liberals are clueless: Trump’s roaring comeback is driven by everyday Americans fed up with soaring bills, not obsessed about a dozen genders or the right to a transgender bathroom. #AbookThatChangesEverything #TrumpWon
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Well yes David, that’s the entire point of my book that you’ve ignored. Instead y’all spent a billion on positive ads defining Harris. I’d have spent the entire billion defining a Trump to the tuned out
We don't get to those we don't follow the news people fast and forget it. Avoid the fight in the popular right leaning ecosystem and watch those voters keep on pulling the lever for "R" no matter how awful the candidates.
I'm curious what trends exist wrt elections with lower turnout such as the WI Supreme Court election in April.
It makes perfect sense to me. This was a change election. Trump stood for change--he said he'll cut gas in half, make food cheap, close the border, cut crime etc.--all things that appeal to voters at first blush (but anyone looking beyond the soundbites could see the bs).
𝑼𝒏𝒅𝒆𝒓𝒔𝒕𝒂𝒏𝒅𝒊𝒏𝒈 𝑾𝒉𝒚 𝑻𝒓𝒖𝒎𝒑 𝑾𝒐𝒏
The liberal establishment has colossally failed us and ushered in a dangerous Trump administration in the process. The only answer is a bottom-up working-class movement.
★ NEW ARTICLE 
Bottom line is that the left replaced working class policies with DEI policies, and went all in on "social justice" - while the average worker makes less in real dollars now than before the Republican Great Depression of the early 1930's. They swung right because of nowhere to go
Dems couldn’t help but gaslight on inflation.
It’s how they wanted to pay for their utopian agenda.
Normies ran out of patience.
I think this is more of a symptom of an electorate that doesn’t trust, corporate /nationwide media than enthusiasm for politics
Yes. The uneducated. That’s all part of burning books. Keep them all stupid.
The uninformed also weren't aware of things like Trump pressuring the Justice Department to lie on his behalf, a dealbreaker in my opinion.
Isn't this just education polarization?
"People who read the news and vote a lot" have higher education and are more affluent.
Not weird. Pre-Trump, if you were getting misinfo, you were watching certain media channels, visiting certain websites, etc. Now, the most popular podcasts are regurgitating the most insane misinfo & these shows are being pushed when visiting certain platforms.
Which is what you would expect if someone was casting "votes" for the low propensity voters whose data they collected. There needs to be a full post-mortem audit of the battleground states. None of this happened in states that vote by mail.
Detail, the survey ignores the power of social networks and podcasts.
It is a stillborn survey, since it ignores the fact that people are looking for new ways to access information, because they do not trust the media, seen as lying and indoctrinating pro-DEMs
It's been clear that populists get elected by the hard of thinking for quite a while
This group primarily cares about the economy which was constantly cited as the number 1 issue for Republicans and Independents. The number 1 issue for Democrats was abortion. They went all in on that issue while outright lying about their opponents’ stance on it. This is simple.
So your propaganda campaigns are reaching fewer people. How sad. Hopefully the trend will continue and soon nobody but a few NPCs will "read the news".
My theory: Voters who are “don’t follow news” generally have a negative view of politicians in general. Trump is seen as an “un-politician” - and therefore a hero to people who want to escape established biz as usual whether typical candidates or typical media.
The more legacy media consumed the more democrat you become. Propaganda works on those who listen to it.
People who believe propaganda voted for the party pushing matching propaganda. How is this weird? Watching Fox News, CNN and MSNBC doesn't make you more informed, it makes you brainwashed.
The Trump team clearly made a concerted effort to get into him into a bunch of male dominated, non-political spaces over the last 4 years after he was deplatformed by legacy media. Team Biden decided they needed to hide their own President from friendly press-It's not that weird!
The marginal voter is an uneducated moron. This is not news of course but Dems need to figure out how to appeal to idiots without calling them idiots
Trump convinced low-info voters that raising tariffs and deporting farm and slaughterhouse workers will magically reduce food prices. And people hate woke and are uncomfortable with transgender issues. It's that simple.
Republicans overturned roe with minority support and democrats cant pass a congressional stock ban with 80% support. It’s not weird it’s what they want. RvL is 50/50ish. 99v1 is what it is.
Is it really "weird" that the people who voted for the guy with insane and terrible economic policies while listing the economy as their biggest issue "might" not have been overly informed?
It’s bad enough that Trump voters will get the horrible horrific results of a Trump presidency. But those of us who understood the ramifications of a Trump administration shouldn’t have to suffer along with those idiots. Unfortunately, we can’t separate them.
The rallies between Kamala and Trump were such a stark contrast in enthusiasm and size. During the DNC, Kamala filled the RNC convention site in Milwaukee as well.
So the data is showing all these folks were already going to vote Democrat?? So confused. 
The media won’t tell you, and woke liberals are clueless: Trump’s roaring comeback is driven by everyday Americans fed up with soaring bills, not obsessed about a dozen genders or the right to a transgender bathroom. #AbookThatChangesEverything #TrumpWon
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A Trump voter!
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Bryan Caplan
@bryan_caplan
The pleasure of ignoring the news is like the joy of walking out of a bad movie.
Both say: This story stinks - and life is too short to waste another minute on it.
I hope the Trump voters who don't follow politics get what they voted for, good and hard.
Everyone that writes about this election has to start out with the fact that Trump won by 1.5%--600K votes in WI, MI, PA. How important are these numbers if Harris just barely lost? How should we be acting on this info when Harris JUST BARELY LOST?
Do you happen to have the 2020-2024 vote share change graphs for voters with and without college degrees?
Taking a Closer Look at the Global Liquidity Cycles Since 1970 
The ebbs and flows of global liquidity are highly significant when it comes to understanding global markets, leading the way they have responded for more than 50 years.
Let’s take a closer look at the past 11
The ebbs and flows of global liquidity are highly significant when it comes to understanding global markets, leading the way they have responded for more than 50 years.
Let’s take a closer look at the past 11Show more
It’s not that wealthier people swung to democrats and less wealthy went with Trump?
It looks like its partly that Dem low turnout voters didn’t voted much less in 2024
and a staggering amount of trump voters don’t believe he will do what he promised. got to be the first election voters chose a candidate who they think won’t do what he said.
What’s the real impact of immigration on the U.S. economy?
Daniel Di Martino brings the data in this episode of The Let People Prosper Show. We break down the fiscal impacts and the ongoing policy debate. #EconTwitter
Crime is down , again, by 26% over the last 2 years. Down by double digits in 35 cities. As an expert noted, this gets little coverage. Massachusetts has a 2.5 % divorce rate. 60% think it's over 50%. Only 4% think it's below 10.
Here's my theory on why "low-information voters" decided the election.
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Wayne 
@vidchor
Replying to @vidchor @murphymike and @HacksOnTap
I think people focus too much on policies. Policies can move the portion of the electorate that splits between those in the Fox News bubble and those in the CNN/MSNBC bubble. And we know that those bubbles split evenly - that's what the polling tells us. 1/x
It’s not weird when a lot of the liberal influencer are Lin Manuel or John Legend types that normal people DO NOT connect with
I think a good percentage of MAGA have been the non political from the start and I really wonder if they'll continue to be political once Trump is gone.
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I wonder if Democrats will be less likely to float the idea of compulsory voting now?
Let me make this easy 
Anyone who has any contact with reality votes against the serial liar serial bankrupt serial deadbeat serial conman serial criminal serial sex abuser serial traitor convicted rapist.
Anyone who has any contact with reality votes against the serial liar serial bankrupt serial deadbeat serial conman serial criminal serial sex abuser serial traitor convicted rapist.
Not really weird. Low-info voters brush by information on social media, which informs their beliefs and outlook over time. Perceived experiences on social media are outweighing any reality. If inflation was the issue, why vote for tariffs? idk tho voters are super bright people!
a big part of that is because starting w/ the DNC happened the Harris campaign specifically eschewed messaging and outreach to the unlikely voters who lean Left in favor of outreach to squishy suburbanites and disaffected Republicans. Forefronting Liz Cheney ain't winning shit
Trump won because Democrats proved that every policy of theirs was a failure and the last 4 years were Hell. Republicans don't answer polls because we're too busy actually working.
Maybe, and follow me here: people who read the news are dems because the news as reported is massive dem confirmation bias. Those who avoid it know it’s basically all lies
oh good! This will make it even more to watch as they get what they deserve. They don't realize what's about to hit them! So much fun on the way!
You’re mixing up causation. People who hate the establishment stopped consuming mainstream political news a long time ago, and they all voted for Trump
You’re leaving out the part about ppl not reading the news bc its all propaganda BS
But “the news” is heavily biased. 6 out of the 7 networks lean Democrat.
So the voters who were fed made up nuance about how the economy wasn’t Biden’s fault would sway D. The people who weren’t, wanted to go back to Trump’s economy.