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Retaliatory tariffs are a bad idea for roughly the same reason that tariffs are a bad idea. If I were Canada/Mexico, I’d maybe ban Teslas but otherwise just like the exchange rates float and hope for the best. Maybe Mexico could offer bus rides from Guatemala to the border.
David Watson 🥑
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Canada could close its airspace to all planes not going to a Canadian city, or it could embargo electricity to the northern tier of states. Without Canadian electricity, NY State is hurting bad. Canada can also lease land to the PRC for bases. Violates NAFTA and NATO treaties,
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retaliatory tariffs are politically necessitated -- you'd get lampooned as a pushover if no action was taken. On top of that, it's about future incentives too!
If we think of the tariffs as an exogenous shock, couldn’t it theoretically be economically efficient in the short-term for Canada to put a high US import tariffs on goods where we were net exporters Small cost to domestic consumers, large benefit to domestic suppliers?
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canada should sanction the 30 companies in the dow jones trump exactly the sort of guy to think in "dow points" big headline, small collateral
Plane flight full of Palestinian refugees to Calgary and then bus trips to the Montana border would be really good retaliation.
Also highly dubious to cause more fracturing in the world when we currently have a full-blown land war in Europe and being surpassed in global trade by China
This is the essence of "Getting to Yes" -- Canada and Mexico should not take it personally, but should find the win-win solutions. Get creative!
One major problem is that people are going to blame higher prices on Canada/Mexico's tariffs, when the higher prices are completely the fault of US tariffs. I agree there are better ways to strike back.
Trump can increase software license tariffs by 10x, and Canada would crumble. All Microsoft, Apple, Android and Red Hat licenses including app stores go up by 10x. Maybe 100x. They would collapse in a day. They don't want to push their luck.
You have no idea how tariffs work or what is the purpose of this particular round of tariffs. As the White House announced last night, the United States imposed 25% tariffs on Mexico/Canada and 10% on China. The tarrifs are temporary as long as conditions for their removal are
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This is the most dense and naive post you've made in a while. You seem to struggle with basic economics. Canada and Mexico’s economies combine for one seventh of US GDP. 80% of their exports go to the US. They will comply or get sent into a recession. Everything else is
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>Maybe Mexico could offer bus rides from Guatemala to the border. Human trafficking as revenge? that is illegal and why we are securing the border. So psychos like you can no longer do this
True in an economic sense minus the FX stuff. (Predicting FX rates based on trade balances is a fool's errand) But it's wrong in a game theory sense. If your opponent senses they have leverage over you, they will push for more in the next round of negotiations.
But this doesn't actually make sense, because Canada imports more consumer and manufactured goods, so letting the exchange rate float (I.e. depreciate) would just end up impoverishing us. Very different than a US vs. China trade war that actually has a significant imbalance .
Tell the US they won't accept any deportees, either, unless the US provides proof to a Mexican court that they're Mexican citizens.
I had the same thought. Also, concentrating retaliation on a small amount of essential goods (limiting factors)
Seems like it would make sense to get everyone affected to agree on sanctions. Just cut us off entirely.
This feels like a horribly naïve approach to threatened annexation. I think there's a good case for Canada (and Mexico) to open up even more to the rest of the world, but you can't simple look the other way on this kind of existential threat to sovereignty.
I think tariffs should be heavily targeted at a American corporations which have been found criminally guilty in the last 5 years and all directors, officers, past and present of the corporations along with their associates. Both the companies and individuals should be levied
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I'm guessing this mentality of "we should do what we can to encourage the failure of Trump's more outlandish policies" will be rife throughout the executive branch.
Mexico can leverage the threat of inviting Chinese auto manufacturers to pressure the Japanese and Korean car companies and their suppliers to build out fully integrated operations within Mexico's borders.
This is clearly untrue. It’s like saying you will NOT launch yor nukes in a MAD staredown.
Thanks for saying this. As a lay person, I was confused why, if we say tariffs are passed down to consumers, should Canada and Mexico be concerned and retaliate only to pass on their tariffs to their citizens
Alcohol makes sense to me. Easily substitutable product made disproportionally in Red States whose consumption governments try to discourage anyway.
I am not sure this is the case from a game theory perspective, the purpose of the retaliatory tariffs would be to make Trump reconsider the tariffs.
Matching tariffs make sense. Why should one country take advantage of another?
Why, if you were Canada/Mexico, do anything in response to tariffs? The tariffs hurt the us not them?? What am I missing?
Canada's market isn't big enough for a Tesla ban to mean shit. The only way to get rid of the tariffs is to make them so damaging to the United States, they become politically toxic. Otherwise they'll be permanent.
This ignores basic game theory. Trump thinks he can disrupt trade anytime he wants and that itself hurts trade. Trump needs to know this spars but, so this is the last one.
I understand why Trump just does tariffs across the board. Doing specific tariffs would require a lot of thought & getting into the details. He would need a lot of logistics, bureaucracy & bean counters. He's not good with any of that stuff. So what's Canada and Mexico's excuse?
Canada was smart by only retaliating against red states, given their biggest trade states are blue.
Canada needs to show a little backbone this time. Less than that leaves it entirely exposed the next time the eye's gaze starts wandering north again.
it's 12D chess cut off your friends hand, cut off your own finger, to act as warning to China dumbassine (new word I just invited - anyone can use it with my permission)
Skeptical this is necessarily about making the smartest of decisions as much as it is trying to send a message that nations won't be so easily bullied. Canadians and Mexicans are not that much different than Americans. They want a knee jerk, punch back reaction w/o thinking too
There has to be a response, obviously. Canada and Mexico will do what they have to do and you, meanwhile, should write to your congressman and have them speak out about the madman ravaging America. 🇨🇦🇲🇽
Mexico gov't will hire the coyotes and professionalize them and build them more tunnels into the US. 'No more river crossings. You have a subway right into Mexican America.'
Giving into bullies is not a winning political position. Every Canadian political leader has called for retaliatory tariffs. They are Canuks not cucks.
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"Maybe Mexico could offer bus rides from Guatemala to the border." We will invade if it comes to that. This isn't your daddy's Republican government.
Ah yes, Mexico helps facilitate human trafficking of minors and women to be taken advantage of by cartels, coyotes and other criminals. Brilliant strategy Matthew.
Problem with banning Tesla is that they are also made in China and would simply be imported from there (or from EU where Tesla also has a factory and both Mexico and Canada have free trade agreement). In fact one of the models is already coming from China to these countries.
The retaliatory tariffs imposed last time Trump tried to impose tariffs midway through his first presidency worked just fine, thanks very much. Maybe you should sit this one out, Matthew.
It’s speaking Trump’s language, it doesn’t really make sense but it sends the right message to Trump. For sure banning Tesla’s and X is a good idea too, that’s what Brazil did.
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Yeah, Mexico and Canada should prove their point by saying "America, send us all your awesome food and manufactured goods. Our people will be more prosperous than ever and all America will get is Canadian dollars and pesos sitting in banks."
I'm not sure you actually understand what is going on here or who would lose worse in this scenario, but it is definitely mexico.
They could instead stop turning a blind eye to fentanyl manufacture and trafficking. Find some other way to stick it to America.