If you assume that Biden loses 100% of uncommitted/write-in primary voters, but flips half of Haley voters, he wins by 11 points nationally and this is the map (TX and IA both within 0.5%, Biden ahead in IA and behind in TX).

Mar 8, 2024 · 4:30 PM UTC

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even if you lose 100% of UC/WI voters he only has to flip 20% of Haley voters to get the 2020 map and he *still* wins (just barely) with just a 15% flip rate
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just for fun: if you assume Biden loses all uncommitted and flips all Haley voters, this is the map with a 23-point PV lead
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Replying to @quantian1
you're projecting those haley voters strictly from the primaries? or are you assuming haley voters are distributed in the electorate in proportion to her primary vote share, and using 2020 turnout totals? cool analysis either way! just curious how you did it
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if you do no extrapolation at all- literally just taking the raw number of Haley/uncommitted primary votes so far, not even extrapolating to states that haven't voted yet- you would widen Biden's PV lead by 1.5 points nationally
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Replying to @quantian1
-> computer, enhance -> “for sure bro”
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Where did I say this was my prediction, what I thought would happen, a sure thing, incorporating all data points, etc. Nothing in my tweet even suggested that.
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Replying to @quantian1
"If Biden wins 50% of Haley voters" At least 75% of Haley voters:
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25% defections is enough to flip NC and the Maine CD even if the other 75% vote Trump
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Replying to @quantian1
The Haley voters were mostly Democrats.
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Replying to @quantian1 @Noahpinion
Biden should’ve tacked to the center much sooner
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