OVERsupply for lithium batteries is looming!
It will bring battery prices down, helping the transition to EVs and clean energy, but create headaches for the lithium industry
Let me give some perspective, showing the long term trend is clear and e.g. @Toyota should be ashamed
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BNEF is tracking a combined 7.9 TWh of lithium-ion battery manufacturing capacity announced for the end of 2025.
BNEF's expected demand in 2025: 1.6 TWh across all segments.
Apr 5, 2024 · 8:09 AM UTC
This eviscerates the last credibility of @Toyota regarding EVs.
They (esp. Gill Pratt) have been pushing the story we should buy their hybrids instead of full EVs because lithium batteries are and will stay the bottleneck
BNEF shows that's simply untrue
I see @Toyota's chief scientist Gill Pratt everywhere with his seemingly 'sober' claim that scarce lithium should be used in small batteries for hybrid cars (that Toyota is market leader in of course).
He's calling out "EV-only extremists".
And it's such utter bollox.
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The energy transition is the largest project in the history of humanity. OFF COURSE there will be some hickups when developing new industries.
But we should stop freaking out anytime some false doom prophet provides clickbait to push their agenda.
Have others told you there are not enough raw materials to transition to 100% renewables?
Did they say minerals are the new oil?
Maybe they believed @SimonMichaux of @GTK_FI?
If so, please explain to them they were fooled, by showing them this thread.
The long term trend is clear: solar and wind will be the backbone of the new energy systems and cars will swap combustion engines for electric ones.
CCS, nuclear, hydro, biofuels, etc. can play a valuable part, but it is optional and limited.
FINALLY!
Our paper on 100%RE is out!
It traces the history and fast growth of the scientific field that models 100% renewable energy: no fossil or nuclear needed.
Hundreds of peer reviewed studies now claim 100%RE is possible worldwide against low cost!
helsinkitimes.fi/themes/them…
And yes, even most trucks will electrify.
twitter.com/AukeHoekstra/sta…
(For long-distance planes and boats and some industrial processes and P2X we are still finding out the trends. E.g. hydrogen vs methanol vs ammonia vs batteries.)
This is my plenary presentation to the EVS35 (an hour from now) about electrifying heavy trucks. I predict it will go faster than you think!
Please react to the individual slides if you have something to add. #EVS35OSLO
Of course this also enables us to rethink cities (e.g. less cars), consumption (e.g. less 'fast fashion'), food (e.g. meat replacements).
But the main point here is that we can get rid of the fossil fueled stuff economically if we stop freaking out.
Instead of freaking out we should ask government to provide subsidies, taxes, mandates and guidelines that help the market develop in an orderly fashion, with a minimum of boom bust cycles that create unhappiness and slow things down.
Market leaders of current industries will vehemently swear that this will lead us to global doom. But we should learn to understand they are married to a world that is going out of fashion and this clouds their judgement.
Trust independent scientific trend-watchers instead.
And stop moaning about China and build factories in your own country. Nothing except slightly higher prices is preventing you.
Especially now that oversupply is threatening, we should support the lithium battery industry to avoid the next bust cycle.
